Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye Senior Macro Analyst Darius Dale.
All told, these 15 factors combine to represent 71% of the cumulative interpolation signal within our US nowcast model and the broad-based deterioration shown in either study (i.e. 2yr vs. 3yr) is supportive of the view that domestic economic growth is likely to continue slowing here in 4Q19E. As always, we’ll update and/amend this view in real-time as incremental data are reported.
Now that I’ve wasted your time with a 1,000-word essay describing why growth is likely to come in essentially “flat” for the absolutists at the Fed, let me un-waste your time with a brief review of how to play an admittedly confusing Quad 2/3 straddle in “choose your own adventure terms”.
If you’re of the view that the bottom in US GROWTH is in the rearview mirror (i.e. Quad 2 in Q4), then you should be aware that...