In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I examine the ongoing global equity market optimism. But unlike the last two weeks, both short- and long-term Treasury yields sank--no doubt due to the FOMC's rate cut. Once again, though some observers are saying Fed Chairman Powell is pausing, the Fed is issuing the same message it did with earlier cuts: that it has no future plans to move up or down. The current big conundrum--to borrow a word from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan--is whether this business cycle still has one more surge of inflation left in it. The evidence thus far is mixed. With so much market hope pinned (primarily) on the coming "Phase One" trade deal and (secondarily) on the likelihood of an orderly Brexit, fewer traders are paying as much attention to economic indicators around the world. These continue to point toward deceleration. We take a close look at the growing U.S. impeachment drama, which passed a dubious threshold last week with the House's party-line vote on starting a formal inquiry against Trump. Meanwhile, the GOP-led Senate is signaling its displeasure with the House proceedings--and Trump's Justice Department is opening its own counter-offensive. Could America's rising partisan tensions be spilling over the boundaries of precedent and due process? Finally, we take an in-depth look at the upheaval in party loyalties in the UK, driven by populism and Brexit. And we look as well at the coming December 12 national election in Britain. BoJo is the heavy (75-25) favorite to remain in as Prime Minister. But whether Johnson can get swift approval for his new Brexit plan, well, that remains a dicier (50-50) proposition.
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