NEWSWIRE: 10/21/19

  • After rising sharply for decades, the rate of twin births in the U.S. has dropped for the first time since the 1980s. The decline occurred among white women ages 30 to 54 and likely reflects advances in IVF technology that are improving the likelihood of single births. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
    • NH: Starting in the early 1980s, the rate of twin births began rising steadily--until reaching 33.9 per 1,000 births in 2014. That was roughly 80% higher than the rate back in 1980 (18.9). And this higher rate has produced well over a million extra twins since 1980 who would not have been born at the earlier rate. These are mostly Millennials, today age 5 to 39. See the first two charts below.
    • But twinning is now in our rear-view mirror, according to the CDC. Since 2014, the twinning rate has declined to 32.6. The total number of twins born annually reached its all-time high in 2007 at 139,000. In 2018, that number was down to 123,000.
    • First question: Why did the twinning rate grow so dramatically after 1980? Demographers point to two big drivers.
    • One driver is higher maternal age. Mothers who give birth past age 35 are more than twice as likely to have twins as mothers who give birth under age 20. Obviously, we're seeing a lot more of the former and a lot less of the latter. Since 1980, fertility rates have plummeted under age 30 and have risen 2x or 3x or 4x over age 30, 35, or 40. Historical population studies also show that twinning is higher for mothers who are well-nourished, have higher adult stature, and have had previous births. The first two of these are trends mitigating further in favor of more twins.
    • The second driver is the rising prevalence of fertility treatments. Women who have trouble getting pregnant now have access to ovulation induction medications (mainly antiestrogens and follicle-stimulating hormones) which often work well but which also greatly increase the odds of multiple pregnancies. Assisted reproductive technologies like IVF also increase the odds by deliberately implanting multiple ova in hopes that at least one will result in a pregnancy. Frequently, more than one results in a pregnancy. Roughly 40% of all newborns resulting from IVF cycles in 2013 (the last year for which we have accurate data) were twins. That's ten times higher than the frequency in normal births. The first U.S. IVF baby was Elizabeth Jordan Carr, born on December 28, 1981. So it's fair to say that the IVF driver behind twinning (now accounting for about 60,000 births per year) coincides almost exactly with the arrival of the Millennial Generation.
    • Second question: So why is twinning now on the decline? Experts aren't certain. But most suspect that changes in IVF protocols are responsible for much of the drop. With improved IVF technologies, doctors no longer have to implant multiple ova to maximize pregnancy odds. What's more, everyone is becoming better aware of the higher health risks posed by multiple pregnancies both for mothers (high-blood pressure, gestational diabetes, pre-eclampsia, hospitalization, and caesarian delivery) and for babies (neonatal care and lasting developmental impairments such as cerebral palsy).
    • As a result, single-ovum transplantation, which was rare 15 years ago, is now starting to become the new norm. According to one preliminary study, 60% of IVF cycles in 2017 involved single transplantation. This is the method now favored by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists in its latest advisory.
    • The CDC data support this interpretation. The biggest recent decline in twinning has occurred among older moms (almost entirely among moms over 30); among non-Hispanic white moms; and among moms living in more affluent and urban states (California, Texas, and the New England and Atlantic states). That triangulates pretty well the demographic with the inclination and the pocketbook to pursue IVF. A separate CDC report in 2018 noted a similar decline in triplets and quadruplets since 1998 in the same demographic. See the last three charts below.
    • While the new IVF protocol will bring the twinning rate down, it is unlikely to bring it all the way back to its historical norm. The average age of child-bearing is much higher than it used to be--and nothing will change that in the near future. Also, lots of women who want babies but can't get pregnant will continue to employ fertility drugs that get them pregnant, and they won't mind the added risk of a multiple pregnancy. Ironically, in an era in which American women are giving birth at the lowest rate ever, the share of babies born with twin brothers and sisters is at its higher rate ever. Amid famine, there is feasting. Clearly, many if not most women who really do want a child would much rather have two or three than none at all.

Trendspotting: After a Long Rise, Rate of Twin Births is Dropping - Oct 21 chart2

Trendspotting: After a Long Rise, Rate of Twin Births is Dropping - Oct 21 chart4

Trendspotting: After a Long Rise, Rate of Twin Births is Dropping - Oct 21 chart3

Trendspotting: After a Long Rise, Rate of Twin Births is Dropping - Oct 21 chart5

Trendspotting: After a Long Rise, Rate of Twin Births is Dropping - Oct 21 chart6

  • The controversy surrounding the NBA and China shows no sign of fading, with LeBron James now weighing in on the pro-Hong Kong tweet that started it all. James’s comments, which were supportive of China, quickly attracted criticism from angry fans who accused him of putting profits before free speech. (NPR)
    • NH: Maybe it's a sign of America's growing isolationism. Surveys show that a large majority of Americans do not favor U.S. companies using their influence to impact cultural or political issues in other countries. In a recent Morning Consult poll, only 23% of American adults said they wanted U.S. companies to do this. The rest either said they didn't care or that companies should "stick to what they do and not get involved." Democrats were a bit more likely to want companies to get involved (31%) and Republicans a bit less likely (21%).
    • All that said, a much greater share of Americans cannot stand hypocrisy. That explains the shock waves hitting the NBA over its efforts to suppress the impact of the tweet by Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey in support of Hong Kong protesters.
    • Is the NBA unusual in the extent to which it bends over backward (kow-tow, if you like) in order not to offend its Chinese hosts? Of course not. Dozens of large U.S. firms do this every day--from Visa, KFC, Walmart, and GM to Starbucks, Coca-Cola, Disney, and Activision. Some giant firms (like Google) do it just in the hopes that they may someday be allowed to enter China in a big way. Even governments do it. Consider how Britain lavishes ceremony on a visit by Xi Jinping (in hopes of winning trade and investment favors) while trying hard to stay quiet about the protests now racking Hong Kong, its former colony.
    • What irks about the NBA reaction is something else. It's that the NBA, as a brand, claims to embody a higher consciousness than anyone else. It pretends to be woker-than-thou. From Black Lives Matter to LGBTQ rights to celebrating globalism and diversity, the NBA takes pride in its willingness to stand up on big issues even when they're unpopular. As Commissioner Adam Silver has repeatedly emphasized, a "sense of an obligation, social responsibility, a desire to speak up directly about issues that are important" is the heart and soul of the NBA brand. "All CEOs, all big corporations these days really have no choice," he has added. "It's an expectation from their customers that they're going to take a position... I think in this day and age, you really do have to stand for something."
    • Such lofty sentiments! But apparently there was a footnote: They don't apply if your stand is going to upset a huge client--the People's Republic of China--worth hundreds of billions of future dollars, a client you've been assiduously courting for a generation. Hong Kong? Really? Isn't this like worrying about snail-darters when you're planning to build a gleaming new city?
    • Sure, I can bet that LeBron was upset. Games were cancelled during his recent goodwill tour of China. He can see his sneaker endorsements losing market value. As for the NBA brand, it didn't hurt that conservatives like Senators Marco Rubio and Ben Sasse roasted the NBA for its waffling on Hong Kong. But it hurt a lot more that progressives like Julian Castro, Beto O'Rourke, and Chuck Schumer joined in. Here at last was an issue that could persuade Senator Ted Cruz and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to draft a joint letter of protest.
    • As we've explained before, a rising share of Americans do expect the companies they do business with to share their social or political views (see "Trendspotting: 2/4/19" and "Trendspotting: 7/17/18"). Silver is right about that. What he didn't read was our warning about how this strategy deepens the risk when the view happens to push in the wrong direction.
    • And while it is true that isolationist America doesn't generally care a whole lot about how companies behave abroad, it is no longer true when the behavior in question touches on a pivotal geopolitical question facing America--and that is how do respond to China's growing authoritarianism and its expanding regional sphere of influence. Once the perception that China is becoming more like us is replaced with the perception that it is becoming less like us over time, everything China does begins to be viewed in a different light.
    • This is bad for the NBA today. But I suspect it will be bad for lots of U.S. firms with large Chinese customer bases or supply chains in the not-too-distant future--starting perhaps with such China-forward brands as Nike and Disney. Democrats, even more than Republicans, are likely to align their brand choices accordingly. Consider this statement from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi last week: “The extraordinary outpouring of courage from the people of Hong Kong stands in stark contrast to a cowardly government that refuses to respect the rule of law or live up to the ‘one country, two systems’ framework, which was guaranteed more than two decades ago." Or, cutting even deeper, consider Citizen Power Initiatives for China, founded by a former political prisoner in China who asks a simple question, "Did a Muslim Slave Make Your Chinese Shirt?"
    • LeBron, in a shudder after Morey's tweet, cautions that "so many people could have been harmed, not only financially but physically, emotionally, spiritually." He has no idea what's coming.
  • In a recent op-ed, 26-year-old writer Rainesford Stauffer laments “the sterile, efficient life of a Millennial.” Her piece, which was written in response to the removal of dining cars on Amtrak’s long-distance trains, yearns for the chance to slow down and enjoy life instead of hustling onward to the next goal. (The New York Times)
    • NH: A generation of menu-driven optimizers must reflect, from time to time, how stripping away everything extraneous and unpurposeful sometimes ends up stripping the joy out of life. “'Who doesn’t want more ease?' I think, as I look around my apartment bedroom, with its efficient closet organization system and a nightstand purchased from Facebook Marketplace — perfectly practical. Nothing is excessive and everything is purposeful, but it’s a sterile place to exist, where function trumps comfort."
    • He concludes: "The idea that young people like me are always on the go, always in transition and always on masks that we might actually desire slowness, want to relish an experience, or enjoy taking a moment to feel comfortable and human instead of curated and optimized."
    • Good luck, Millennial man.
  • The number of children attending U.S. public schools with students of other races has nearly doubled since 1995. This shift reflects the increasing racial diversity of the country, but it isn’t occurring everywhere; in big cities and across the South, many districts remain deeply segregated. (The Washington Post)
    • NH: This is an interesting analysis burdened by a very convoluted explanation. Let me just untangle the threads here and cut to the bottom line.
    • The WP defines a school district as "diverse" if no one race is larger than 75% of the district's enrollment. And it defines a school district as "highly integrated" if it is (a) diverse and (b) the minority shares do not differ too much between schools in the district.
    • Got that? OK. The WP's big finding is that the total number of students attending highly integrated schools roughly doubled from 1995 to 2017 (from 5.9 to 10.8 million), while the number attending non-integrated schools at the other extreme has remained about the same (from 5.7 to 5.8 million). Meanwhile, the total number of public-school students not in charter schools (the only ones examined in this study) grew by 6%.
    • What explains this shift? Most of it is caused by the greater share of all students--from 45% to 65%--living in diverse districts. Part of this is due to the significant decline in the residential segregation of African-Americans since the mid-1990s. Another part is due to the rising shares of kids who are Hispanic and Asian, plus the growing migration of Hispanics and Asians out of big cities into suburbs and rural towns. Still, another part is due to people's increasing willingness to self-identify as multi-racial--or as both white and Hispanic.
    • On the other hand, the share of all kids living in diverse districts who go to highly integrated schools has risen only modestly. And what improvement we've seen is mainly due to higher integration rates for Hispanics and Asians and has occurred in "newly diverse" suburbs and rural towns. We've seen little net improvement in historically segregated urban districts like Denver, Milwaukee, Chicago, and Charleston or in racially homogenous districts like Birmingham or Milwaukee.
    • The issue came up in the first Democratic debate in an exchange between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden. Harris defended the federally enforced busing policies that integrated many historically segregated urban districts from the late 1970s through the early 1970s, the era when Xers (like Harris) were growing up. According to Biden, the verdict of history was that the busing experiment was a failure. The data suggest that Biden is right. The integration of historically segregated big cities through busing proved to be temporary--and was eventually rolled back. Yes, America's schools as a whole are getting less segregated. But that's due to new residential and school mixing in communities little prior history or awareness of diversity issues, either between or within districts.

Trendspotting: After a Long Rise, Rate of Twin Births is Dropping - Oct 21 chart7

Trendspotting: After a Long Rise, Rate of Twin Births is Dropping - Oct 21 chart8

  • Goth fashion is back, and this time it’s made the leap into luxury fashion houses. Dark colors, chunky combat boots, and Victorian-inspired designs aren’t just for angsty ‘90s teens anymore; they’ve matured into officewear and runway looks. (The Wall Street Journal)
    • NH: Here's an in-depth WSJ fashion piece on all the big brands from Gucci to Prada who are showcasing "goth" fashion after discovering its popularity among midlife Gen-Xers with big bucks to spend. Astonishingly, in this entire feature story, there is no explicit mention of the generational connection between the punked-out teens who came of age in the '80s and early '90s and the 40- and 50-somethings who today yearn to spice up their corporate attire with a studded collar or black lipstick or a pair of Doc Martens.
    • The author reports that "fashion’s cyclical nature partly explains this turn to goth and the urge to reclaim it from glum suburban teenagers'' --as though today's teens have anything to do with it. She comes closest with this: "But more than ennui is at work here. The goth subculture grew out of goth rock, a variation of post-punk that emerged in the late 1970s with bands like Siouxsie and the Banshees and the Cure. The stylistic aesthetic of goth musicians and their fans—raven hair, oxblood lips, black clothing—drew on the iconography of horror films, Pre-Raphaelite art and gothic literature."
    • OK, you're close. Just close the loop and repeat after me: These-are-the-same-people.
  • In a new journal article, an academic and an economist make the case for stronger state support to foster family formation in the U.S. The authors take a critical look at ideas from both sides of the aisle and propose a solution that neither party has tried: giving parents stipends for at-home child care. (American Affairs)
    • NH: This is a serious proposal with an irresistible appeal to political cross-dressers. It takes the universal basic income (UBI) idea now popular on the wonky hi-tech left--for example, among Silicon Valley CEOs and 2020 Democratic candidate Andrew Yang. And it merges UBI with a pronatal agenda that would fit right in with the right-wing populists ruling Hungary or Poland.
    • The proposal? Increase the size of the cash benefit to each family according to the number of children it raises. The idea would be to compensate mothers (or dads) for all of the unremunerated labor they spend raising the next generation--on which we all depend, ultimately, to fight our wars and pay for our retirements. This idea has roots among matricentric feminists like Shirley Burggraf, whose 1996 book The Feminine Economy And Economic Man first laid out the case for a "parental dividend" to be added on to pay-as-you-go entitlements like Social Security and Medicare. The solvency of our political economy rests upon young people willing to become lifelong indentured servants for all seniors, even seniors who have no children. Yet we allocate no public resources to this purpose? Free riders bear no penalty? From this perspective, maybe falling fertility rates should surprise no one.
    • As a policy proposal, it's a radical hybrid. It's a crazy offspring of the populism of both the left and the right. And I am pretty certain we're going to hear a lot more along these lines in the years to come.
  • TikTok, the home of endless silly memes, has also become a way for teens to show what it’s like to live in the age of school shootings. These darkly funny videos draw upon this generation’s low-level fears of gun violence, and underneath the humor, their frustration that little is being done to address them. (CNN)
    • NH: With older people all wound up, fists clenched, over partisan politics, it takes a new generation to de-tensify all the standoffs. On bite-sized videos, Homelanders find absurd humor in a world brimming of passionate posturing yet devoid of effective action.
  • Congress is moving to curtail the generosity of Stretch IRAs, which allow younger heirs to inherit decades of tax-free growth. Those who planned to pass these accounts onto their grandkids now find themselves pitted against critics who say that inherited IRAs primarily benefit the wealthy. (The Wall Street Journal)
    • NH: The Stretch IRA reflects the very worst of our current tax system. It's not a simple or transparent provision. Rather, it's an ordinary IRA that can be transformed--via the alchemy of fancy lawyering--into a bequest that "stretches" tax payments over the beneficiary's lifetime. The Stretch IRA is currently being threatened by a rare bipartisan effort in Congress to expand DC pensions to more small business employees and part-time workers (the "SECURE" act in the House; "RESA" in the Senate). The cost of these democratizing expansions requires budget savings elsewhere. The backers' plan is to shut down the Stretch IRA.
    • My take? Families with enough wealth to worry about tax-sheltering bequests to the next generation should consider themselves very lucky if voiding Stretch IRAs is the only hit they take. A new wealth tax, shrinking the estate-tax exemption, raising rates on investment income--come 2020, I would say, everything will be on the table.
  • Japan is struggling to slow down rural depopulation as younger residents flock to the country’s urban centers. Thousands of schools and businesses in rural areas have closed, making it harder for their fast-aging populations to obtain basic services. (Bloomberg)
    • NH: According to UN projections, rural Japan is expected to lose 17% of its population over the next 12 years, between 2018 and 2030. That's not the fastest decline of any nation projected by the UN. There are two others: China is due to lose an amazing 30% of its rural population and Taiwan 18%. But it's noteworthy that all three societies are aging rapidly, that all three are in East Asia, and that younger generations in all three desperately want to escape from the norms of filial piety enforced in the traditional Confucian countryside.
    • This is a penetrating story that asks new questions. Yes, we all know that Japan is at the forefront of population aging and overall population decline. But few demographers focus on the special challenges of accelerating rural depopulation--which hits sooner and faster than the overall decline. (The UN projects that both the United States and Germany, by the way, will lose 7% of their rural folk by 2030. See the chart below.)
    • Some side-effects of this rural implosion might be welcomed as good news: What about bigger forests and more wild animals? (See "Trendspotting: 8/12/19.")
    • But the bad news also looms. What about the self-reinforcing nature of this decline--the fact that the older average age in rural areas creates even higher barriers to young families living and working there? Or the accompanying flight of wealth (both earned and inherited) into urban areas, leaving rural businesses and banks hard-pressed to raise money or justify loans even (as in Japan) at negative interest rates? Shinzo Abe's government is now awarding large bounties to people and businesses who want to relocate to rural prefects. The response is similar to the response to subsidies for having children--lukewarm.

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    • In 2017, 55- to 64-year-olds accounted for 26% of new entrepreneurs, up from 15% in 1996. As more Boomers opt for entrepreneurship over retirement, many are teaming up with younger workers whose skills complement their experience. (Bloomberg Businessweek)
      • NH: As I have often pointed out--and somewhat at odds with the common impression--Millennials have triggered a decline in young-adult entrepreneurship and Boomers have triggered a rise in senior entrepreneurship. (See "Trendspotting: 10/2/19.") As the Bloomberg piece points out, moreover, Millennials who do go into business for themselves are often happy to collaborate with older entrepreneurs (typically, Boomers) with experience. That's something that young Boomers seldom did. (See "Trendspotting: 1/7/19.")

        DID YOU KNOW?

        There’s No Place Like House Hunters. If you have cable, chances are you’ve caught an episode of House Hunters. Twenty years after its debut, the reality series is HGTV’s flagship show, with viewership consistently in the top 10 of all cable series. One of the reasons why House Hunters is so popular is that there’s something for everyone: Viewers can zone out to its predictable plots and gawk at a parade of beautiful real estate. But the show’s biggest fans—55% of the audience—are young adults. Why? As noted in The Washington Post, the show holds a special appeal for Millennials: It serves as an aspirational fantasy presenting a vision of a life many of them feel they will never be able to afford. It makes homeownership feel accessible at a time when it’s increasingly out of reach. And in an era when young people are reporting the highest levels of stress, the show’s low-stakes formula makes it a comforting escape.