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JOBLESS CLAIMS: UNCHANGED

There's not much to get excited about in this morning's claims print. Initial unemployment claims came in at 444k, unchanged from last week, although after upwardly revising last week's print by 4k, this week's print is being cited as a 4k improvement sequentially. On a 4-week rolling basis, the improvement was meaningful, falling 9k to 450.5k.  

 

As we pointed out last week, we remain concerned that without significant improvement in claims, a leading indicator, there will be no meaningful improvement in unemployment, a lagging indicator. By extension, without improvement in unemployment it will be difficult for credit costs to return to what are considered "normalized" levels. At a minimum, a return to those normalized levels will be delayed. Remember, for unemployment to fall meaningfully, initial claims need to fall to a sustained level of 375-400k. We remain 45-70k above that level - roughly where we've been for five months now.

 

As a reminder around the census, May is the expected peak employment month. Beginning next month the census will become a headwind for job creation.  

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS: UNCHANGED - rolling

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS: UNCHANGED - raw

 

The following chart shows the census hiring timeline.  If the past two cycles are an appropriate model for this year's census, we should start to see Census employment draw down as we move into June, creating a headwind for employment. 

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS: UNCHANGED - census chart

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur


THE M3: BANKS LOSE MONEY ON SANDS FINANCING; RISING CASINO WORKER SALARIES

The Macau Metro Monitor, May 13th, 2010

 

 

RLPC-BANKS FACE LOSS ON SANDS CHINA LOAN-SOURCES Reuters

 Bank underwriters of a $1.75 billion loan for Sands' sites 5 and 6 are expected to lose money in the secondary loan market, bankers said on Wednesday.  Banks are expected to sell the loan at 87% of face value or lower after many bank investors declined to join the loan in a lengthy four-month syndication.  The loan raised around $150MM which left underwriters overexposed to the tune of $1.6 billion.  Underwriters included Bank of China Macau ($250MM), BNP Paribas ($250MM), Citigroup ($250MM), Barclays Capital ($200MM), Goldman Sachs ($200MM), UBS ($200MM), Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Macau ($150MM), Banco Nacional Ultramarino ($100MM), DBS Bank ($75MM) and OCBC Bank ($75MM).

 

Sands China's loan is expected to trade at a deeper discount than fellow subsidiary Marina Bay Sands' loan, which is trading at 87% of face value, according to Thomson Reuters LPC data.  Despite higher pricing of 450 basis points over HIBOR or LIBOR, bank investors remained wary of the risk.  A senior loan syndicator, whose bank did not join the deal, said that the greenfield project and overcapacity in the Macau market weighed against his bank joining.  Two sources - one from an underwriting bank - said the deal was also kept open for covenant changes, which required banks to seek new credit approvals.

 

RISING SALARIES IN GAMBLING INDUSTRY HAS ATTRACTED A LOT OF PEOPLE TO CHANGE THEIR OCCUPATION Macaudaily News

Gambling enterprises have announced that they will increase the salaries of their workers, though it is mainly for front line staff, to promote employee loyalty and attract more staff to maintain the service quality of the casinos. For example, City of Dreams have already announced for a substantial pay raise for their front line workers. But aside from a higher salary, It is still uncertain if people would be willing to retrain through government-subsidized, short-term training courses in hospitality and gaming. Also, there are concerns that higher gaming salaries may exacerbate social imbalances and entice young people to drop out of school. Nevertheless, a robust gambling industry have been a positive impact on many other industries in Macau.


Fiat Fools

“Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius - and a lot of courage - to move in the opposite direction.”

-Albert Einstein

 

At this stage of the Sovereign Debt Dichotomy, it’s fascinating to observe how little professional politicians know about what they don’t know. From Athens to Albany, finding resolve in Piling Debt Upon Debt Upon Debt via fiat currencies is not going to end well. Anyone who isn’t paid to be willfully blind gets this by now.

 

With Ben Bernanke and Jean-Claude Trichet printing moneys from the Keynesian heavens, we thought we’d do some minting of our own this morning and introduce Fiat Fools as our new Hedgeye nickname for politicians running European and American monetary policy.

 

Adam Smith be damned - there is nothing invisible about the heavy hands of these governments. When it comes to their latest storytelling of a “fat finger” causing volatility in the US stock market, take their word for it. It’s a big fat middle finger from the creditors of our broken promises.

 

In Latin, the word fiat means “let it be done” … and so our modern day Roman Gods of finance will do exactly that. Let us debauch the value of our currencies and inflate our way out of this colossal mess. All the while, let us hope that our creditors and citizens alike don’t notice Main Street inflation while Wall Street gets paid to underwrite it.

 

Alas, we all know that hope, unfortunately, is not an investment process for anyone other than the Fiat Fools. The inconvenient truth of history reveals that debtor nations who become hostage to foreign lenders are just that – hostages. As David Walker points out in his latest book “Comeback America”, “the British Empire learned this in 1956, when Britain and France were contesting control of the Suez Canal with Egypt.” All US President Eisenhower needed to do was threaten to sell the British Pound.

 

What if the Chinese or Japanese imposed that credible threat on the US? Up until Greenspan went global with the Fiat Fool system of US economic policy, US public debt held by foreigners was less than 20%. Now it’s pushing north of 50%, and that’s the point. The Buck stops there - and don’t think for a New York minute that America isn’t setting herself up on the trolley tracks to get run right over by the same oncoming train that European pigs have.

 

This is why we call it the Sovereign Debt Dichotomy. There is simply a Duration Mismatch between when the Fiat Fools of Europe and America will see their debts come due. There is absolutely no irony that Greece started to unwind before Spain did. Nor will there be as Spain starts to unwind before France and the US do. The timing of debt maturities matters. Only a Fiat Fool who has never traded a market in his life couldn’t tell you that.

 

As our head of US Strategy, Howard Penney, recently wrote, America has to roll over 40% of US Treasury debt by 2012. Even compared to a country like the UK that has already been forced to devalue its fiat currency, that’s more than a double versus UK gilt maturities as a percentage of the total outstanding!

 

Altogether, this is the #1 reason why we have sold into US stock market strength this week. The duration gap is finally starting to narrow between the Fiat Fools of Europe having their pants pulled down in front of the world and the tide rolling out on our professional US politicians.

 

This morning the Euro is making another lower-low, and remains broken across all 3 of our investment durations (TRADE, TREND, and TAIL). As a result, since 58% of the US Dollar Index is Euros, the Buck Breakout that we have been calling for since the beginning of 2010 continues as the US Dollar hits higher-highs.

 

At a point, and we are not there just yet, the US Dollar is going to be a raging short again. There is a reason why we called for the Burning Buck last year. That reason hasn’t gone away. The European Fiat Fingers are simply taking their turn at the wheel. Unless Ben Bernanke stops behaving like Arthur Burns did between 1, and gets this US currency and the sovereign debt that underpins it under control, we are going to go to a very scary societal place.

 

From a risk management perspective, the US Dollar Index looks like a short again up at the $86.97 level. As both the US Dollar and gold push to higher-highs as a refuge away from a Euro that continues to make lower-lows, I don’t see why we don’t test that upward boundary. The Buck Breakout will continue until the Euro finally becomes the most consensus trade in modern day Rome.

 

Our immediate term TRADE range for the Euro is now $1.24-1.28 and until Spain has its Greek moments in June/July, I’d stay with the Euro short bias as the most obvious way to be short the decision making process of the Fiat Fools. In terms of the capitulation zone, I am now looking at an ultimate 2010 bottom for the Euro at $1.21. That quantitative risk management view lines up pretty well with where I see the US Dollar Index finding its final crescendo.

 

Politics may indeed be local. Fiat Fools, unfortunately, have gone global.

 

My immediate term support and resistance lines for the SP500 are now 1144 and 1186, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Fiat Fools - TR


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US STRATEGY - DOING WHAT WE ARE TRAINED TO DO - SPECULATE

Most of the time common stocks are subject to irrational and excessive price fluctuations in both directions as the consequence of the ingrained tendency of most people to speculate or gamble... to give way to hope, fear and greed.

- Benjamin Graham

 

The issues that surround one of our three key themes for 2Q10 (Sovereign Debt Dichotomy) are not going away despite a $1 trillion bail out of the PIIGS in the EU. Although our conclusion has been that it will bring May showers (another 2Q10 theme), the prevailing market structure is bullish and is begging us to speculate once again.

 

Yesterday, US equities finished higher, the move was muted with volume down 13% day-over-day and down sequentially for the past four days. The S&P 500 rose 1.37% yesterday, while the Russell 2000 rose 2.97%. Globally, equity markets continue to be focused on macro developments in the EU, particularly as additional austerity measures adopted by Spain helped to dampen some of the moral hazard concerns that had have dominated the market since the beginning of May. This too shall pass, as Spain’s underlying fundamentals suggest an even rockier road ahead (email if you’d like to take part in our Monthly Strategy Call on May 18th: Sovereign Debt: Bearish Enough on Spain?). While these austerity measures are needed, the monstrous amounts of debt being taken on by European governments continues to debase the Euro.

 

At the time of writing, equity futures are trading below fair value, giving back some of yesterday’s gains. In Europe, Greece, Spain, France and Italy (all problem deficit countries) all trading lower again this morning. Since the market close yesterday, CSCO reported numbers above estimates (but trading lower) and the SAP bid for Sybase (SY) is now official. As we look at today’s set up, the range for the S&P 500 is 42 points or 2.4% (1,144) downside and 1.2% (1,186) upside.

 

On the MACRO calendar we have:

  • April Import Price Index,
  • Initial jobless claims
  • Treasury Auctions in 30-yr bonds 

The reduced level of moral hazard concern can also be seen in the VIX, which was down 9% yesterday and has declined sequentially for the past three days. It should be noted that the VIX is still up 63% over the past month. The Hedgeye Risk Management models have levels for the VIX at: buy Trade (20.41) and sell Trade (39.39).

 

The Dollar bullish TREND remains (up 0.43% yesterday) and is trading higher today. The Hedgeye Risk Management models have levels for the DXY at: buy Trade (83.85) and sell Trade (84.99). In contrast, the Euros bearish TREND remains as the Hedgeye Risk Management model registers its lowest low of immediate term support YTD at 1.24. The Hedgeye Risk Management models have the following levels for the EURO – Buy Trade (1.24) and Sell Trade (1.28).

 

The XLK was the best performing sector yesterday after selling off on Tuesday. M&A and the credit-card names were among the standouts in the sector. SY was up 35.1% on reports that the company will be acquired by SAP. IBM (up 4.6%) was one the best performers in the hardware space after the company said it expects to double its earnings to at least $20 a share by 2015. The SOX also rallied 2.8% yesterday.

 

The Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) outperformed the broader market today. Both sectors have been significantly impacted the macro influences that have been driving the market over the last couple of weeks. The Machinery group and Transports were big gainers yesterday with the S&P Machinery Index +3% and the Transports up 2.1%.

 

The low beta Utilities (XLU), Healthcare (XLV) and Consumer Staples (XLP) were the bottom three performing sectors yesterday.

 

In early trading, Copper rose for the first time in three days in London as concerns about European budget deficits eased as Spain announced its biggest round of budget cuts in 30 years. The Hedgeye Risk Management Quant models have the following levels for COPPER – Buy Trade (3.07) and Sell Trade (3.21).

 

Oil is looking lower for a third straight day as U.S. crude inventories grew and the dollar is stronger. The Hedgeye Risk Management models have the following levels for OIL – Buy Trade (74.99) and Sell Trade (80.34).

 

Gold’s safe-haven status continues with Gold up 1.8% yesterday and is now up 12.4% YTD. The Hedgeye Risk Management models have the following levels for GOLD – Buy Trade (1,199) and Sell Trade (1,246).

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

US STRATEGY - DOING WHAT WE ARE TRAINED TO DO - SPECULATE - S P

 

US STRATEGY - DOING WHAT WE ARE TRAINED TO DO - SPECULATE - DOLLAR

 

US STRATEGY - DOING WHAT WE ARE TRAINED TO DO - SPECULATE - VIX

 

US STRATEGY - DOING WHAT WE ARE TRAINED TO DO - SPECULATE - OIL

 

US STRATEGY - DOING WHAT WE ARE TRAINED TO DO - SPECULATE - GOLD

 

US STRATEGY - DOING WHAT WE ARE TRAINED TO DO - SPECULATE - COPPER


Brazilian Shopping Spree

Conclusion: While we do question the sustainability of peak sales growth, we’d be remiss not to call out Brazil’s ability to manufacture domestic demand in lieu of Chinese’s tightening. Moreover, domestic demand in Brazil will continue to influence the Bovespa apart from the Chinese demand story. This is in contrast to Europe, which is struggling with internal demand.

 

Brazilian retail sales grew at the fastest pace since 2001, as surging consumer demand augments an economic recovery that has largely been linked to China. We’ve been vocal in recent weeks saying that the outlook for the Brazilian economy is leveraged to Chinese demand and to the extent we see further tightening by their government. Although lagging, today’s Brazilian retail sales release moonshot sent the Bovespa up 1.2% in on the day and tells a tale of domestic strength - at least for now.

 

Brazilian retail sales sequentially accelerated to +15.7% y/y in March, up from a revised +12.2% y/y in February. The +15.7 % yearly increase is the most since at least 2001, according to the IBGE. Even more impressive, the jump was recorded in the same month real wages declined -3.01% y/y (March inflation more than doubled nominal wage growth at +5.16% y/y vs. +2.15% y/y), suggesting that March’s shopping spree was likely the result of a sequential improvement in the real wage growth rate. A pickup in consumer credit may have also occurred, as Cia Brasileira de Distribuicao Grupo Pao de Acucar, Brazil’s largest retailer, reported a 33 percent jump in quarterly profit citing a measured increase in consumer demand for electronics as the nation’s citizens prep for the World Cup.

 

While we do question the sustainability of peak sales growth, we’d be remiss not to call Brazil’s ability to manufacture domestic demand in lieu of Chinese’s tightening. Furthermore, with food inflation being the largest driver of price increases for the month of April, we may see consumer demand stay for a little while as this year’s forecasted record harvests will exert downward pressure on food prices.

 

Darius Dale

Analyst

 

Brazilian Shopping Spree - Brazil Retail Sales


WYNN ENCORE OFF TO A GOOD START

Wynn's revenue share in Macau share looks good on a preliminary basis.

 

 

Our Macau sources are telling us that Wynn’s market share of gross gaming revenues month-to-date has jumped to 18% due to strong VIP turnover and decent hold.  Obviously, Encore is fueling the increase but, if our sources are correct, Wynn would be adding more share than supply which would be a positive.  One source even suggested that Wynn overtook LVS in market share, although it could be due to just low hold. 

 

As we wrote about yesterday in “MPEL: TOO BIG OF A MOVE DOWN”, we think Macau is having a very good May, driven by very strong VIP volumes.  Our best guess is that May revenues should increase +60% y-o-y.  Wynn has materially higher market share in VIP and to get to 18% total GGR share, they would need to capture over 20% of VIP revenue – which is a nice jump over April and 1Q2010.  In April, VIP revenues grew 89% y-o-y to almost $1.27BN, and if May comes in at similar or slightly higher levels and if Wynn’s Mass share creeps up a few bps to 10%, that would imply a whopping $274MM of gross table revenue for Wynn.  We’ve also heard that all of the Encore tables are direct play tables which means lower blended commissions and higher margins.

 

To put things in context:

  • Wynn added 37 VIP tables and 24 Premium Mass tables, representing a 2.3% and a 70bps addition to the market as a whole, respectively. 
  • Wynn’s market share in April:
    • 14% ($239MM) of total table revenues
    • 16% share of VIP revenues
    • 14.4% share of Junket RC
  • Wynn’s market share in 1Q2010:
    • 13.5% ($663MM) of total table revenues
    • 15% share of VIP revenues
    • 16% share of Junket RC

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