Call Now | 4Q 2019 Health Care Themes @ 2 PM ET | New Ways to Succeed at the End of 2019

Key 4Q 2019 Themes

• Recessions Risk | The US Medical Economy tends to accelerate at the end of economic cycles and our work tells us to expect a positive Health Care earnings season in 3Q19.  But as growth concerns continue to spread globally, Health Care is increasingly at risk and we've got our attention focused on the key series that should be the best early warning flags.
• Factors and Screen Results | As we transition from Quad 4 into what-comes-next, continue to ramp our data efforts, we're continue to evolve our process to take advantage of the Hedgeye Macro outlook to drive performance.  Our recent work provides a data rich road map for screening, selecting, and monitoring our focus ideas for the coming quarter. We'll show the back- test results, including why Biotech and Life Sciences & Tools were such as disaster in 3Q19, for example, and why high short interest stocks are almost never a good idea.  But most importantly, we'll share what we think are the high probability ideas this quarter.
• Position Monitor Longs and Shorts | Some of our active positions carry a high confidence interval, more attractive risk/reward, or both.  In recent weeks we've been focused on Genetic Testing as we've added ILMN and GH to the long side and added NVTA to the long bench.  We think we have an edge with our claims data, and we'll talk about some of our recent findings.
• Will They or Won't They? | Major drug price legislation appears to be hung up on election year politics and a lack of consensus solutions. Despite disagreements on significant issues like negotiation/price setting for Medicare drugs, there is some common ground on a major overhaul of Medicare Part D, among other things. A 4Q year-end spending deal represents an opportunity to get at least a few things done.
• The Pen and the Phone | The White House doesn't need legislation to make things happen as President Obama rightly pointed out after the 2010 election. The Trump administration has pending a number of rules including ones related to third party support of commercial insurance for dialysis patients; changes to self-referral and anti-kickback regulations; price transparency and drug prices. Many if not all of those could be proposed or finalized in 4Q 2019
• Another Day Another EO | President Trump's most recent Executive Order is most accretive to the Medicare Advantage program. However, the White House did not pass up the opportunity to suggest changes to network adequacy requirements, payments for innovative treatments and other rules that limit innovation
• Digital Health Policy | The FDA released draft guidance last month on digital health with some significant and important changes in how Software as a Medical Device would be regulated in the future.
• Cannabis and Federal Hemp Program | Vaping controversies, public health concerns, state regulatory efforts and federal policy are creating what has to be the most vexing regulatory conundrum in Washington. The FDA has promised a regulatory framework this fall, and the USDA is behind schedule in releasing its Hemp program guidance. They both must thread the needle between public health and enforcement concerns and clear Congressional direction to act.
• Election Angst | It's 4Q 2019 and time to get out the 12-month count-down to the 2020 election. The long knives are out for Joe Biden but he remains the most viable threat to President Trump. Elizabeth Warren's ascendancy poses some interesting questions for the health care sector as she gives at least lip service to Medicare for All.