In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I take a quick look at the latest release of PMIs around the world. In the United States, they triggered a major sell-off last Tuesday. Around the rest of the world, they came in either below expectations, under 50, or both. The entire Eurozone is now on the verge of a composite diffusion-index contraction. I take a closer look at probability indicators for a U.S. recession in the next 12 months, starting with the Fed's forecast and moving on to surveys of economists and financial managers. You can judge for yourself whether Fed Board Vice Chair Richard Clarida is right that "the risk of recession is not high." China's leaders are now apparently trying to narrow the scope of the trade negotiations, perhaps because they now sense that Trump's bargaining position is weakening--or because they are girding themselves for intervention in Hong Kong. In the midst of the impeachment uproar, we take a close look at the real winner of what Pelosi has (reluctantly) set in motion--and that is Elizabeth Warren. Finally, we examine a new study that explains why winning the presidency while losing the popular vote (that's what Trump did in 2016) is actually a lot more probable than most people think. The study also explains why the GOP is much more likely to pull this off in 2020 than the Democrats. Could this help Donald Trump in 2020? Only if the election is close.
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