The SP500 bounced where it should have. Now it’s doing its best to close above the intermediate term TREND line (1143).
I see the potential for 2 high-probability scenarios playing out from here:
- If the market can hold today’s intraday gains, there is no significant resistance until the dotted red line in the chart below (1168). From 1168-1188 there is significant resistance and each line in that range would establish a series of lower-highs. On the margin, lower highs are bearish.
- If the SP500 fails to hold and close above the intermediate term line (1143) throughout this week, there is no reason to believe that the SP500 won’t test its prior closing YTD low of 1110. As of 1PM EST I am currently registering 1107 as downside support. On the margin, lower-lows are also bearish.
Under each of these scenarios, The Risk Manager says you should be making sales today on strength. We’ve sold 3 long positions out of our Virtual Portfolio (CIT, BBBY, and PRSP) and sold our trading long position in SPY to take our Asset Allocation to US Equities down from 6% to 3%. We have not started to re-short stocks or ETFs yet.
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer