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Live Q&A: Healthcare Position Monitor, Recent Research Updates, Q&A Please Join us on Monday, September 30, 2019 @ 2 PM ET - Add to Outlook Calendar Our updated position monitor and upcoming takeaways for 3Q19. CLICK HERE for event details (includes video link, materials link and dial-in) |
GH - Volume trends for GH continue a steady climb in the Guardant Volume Index. According to the data chart below, the volume trajectory appears to be on a pace to beat 3Q19 estimates, but also indicates guidance of 44,000-46,000 tests for 2019 is too low. For a stock that has fallen -43% from its all time high and yet still trades at 22X sales, Guardant may be more like a falling knife than a v-bottom. On the other hand, beating estimates would support the $50B TAM narrative, an opportunity that swamps the current $5.6B enterprise value.
AMN: We reviewed and updated our AMN long this past Friday, CLICK HERE for video & audio replay. There are a number of tailwinds we see in the near- term including both solid demand and supply. Beyond core staffing trends, labor disruption may be turning up as well after being only a modest contributor in recent years. As we discussed in the presentation, strike activity has been on a decade long hiatus. The recent Kaiser negotiation and settlement, as well as other factors, indicates to us that other local unions will likely continue testing the waters as well. As a result, AMN's labor disruption business will see more demand.
NVTA Management guidance anticipates a substantial increase in test volume in the second half of 2019. Our NVTA Volume Index indicates they could meet expectations, but it doesn't appear the company is going to crush numbers. We've heard enough of the skeptical/bear view of NVTA to remain cautious, especially if they deliver an inline revenue quarter.
ILMN | After a substantial first half decline in NIH activity for grants focused on genomic research and ILMN equipment and consumables, award trends have improved and now show only a modest deceleration as we reach the end of the fiscal year. At least for the academic side of ILMN's business, funding trends appear to be improving.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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