In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we take a quick look at the choppy mood of global markets. As anticipated, the Fed's FOMC cut the fed funds rate by 0.25%. But U.S. equities were down slightly, the 10Y yield sank, and the yield curve inversion deepened once again. A big upside surprise to the U.S. economy appeared in housing, where four big indicators all soared above expectations. On the other hand, most economic news from the rest of the world remained negative. The OECD downgraded all of its GDP growth rates around the world--and now expects global GDP growth in 2019 to weigh in at 2.9%, the lowest rate since 2009. This comes shortly after similar global downgrades by the IMF (in July) and by the World Bank (in June). Meanwhile, global markets are holding their breath, metaphorically speaking, over what President Trump intends to do about Iran's apparently overt military attack on Saudi oil refineries. Trump should have seen this coming--and now he faces few attractive options. Meanwhile, Germany proposes an ambitious new green program, without however any accompanying fiscal stimulus. Italy's ruling coalition fragments. Austria's right-wing populists look to re-assume power. And UK politics remain on full boil. Finally, we examine the impact on U.S. fertility of the declining marriage eligibility of males. In other words: Is U.S. fertility falling because Millennial women just can't find enough good Millennial men?
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