Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Senior Macro Analyst Darius Dale. Click here to learn more.

2yr comps are receding in China and the Eurozone, which, all things held equal, should see growth inflect higher here in 3Q19E, but that’s precisely what is NOT happening.

Per our nowcast models, growth continues to slow in both economies amid steepening 3yr comps, which appropriately contextualize just how awesome of a run that sugar high ultimately was. In fact, if you believe the 3yr, the nominal growth rate of China’s Secondary Industries – THE key metric to track as it pertains to China’s relationship with the global industrial cycle – won’t bottom out until 1Q20E, just one quarter ahead of US Real GDP growth bottoming out at ~1.7% YoY.

CHART OF THE DAY: Is It the 2yr or 3yr? - 1