Takeaway: We'll run through the most recent data and estimates heading into 3Q19 and why we think AMN can trade into the $70s.

AMN | Call Invite: Friday Sept. 27, 2019 @ 2pm ET | Labor Trends Continue to Go Their Way - 20190920 tracker slide

AMN | Labor Trends Continue to Go Their Way

Please Join us on Friday, Sept. 27, 2019 @ 2PM ET - Add to Outlook Calendar

Our updated data points to a positive 3Q19 and 4Q19 guidance. 

Call in detail and links will be available shortly

OVERVIEW |  POSITIVE TRENDS INTO 3Q19 EARNINGS

Health Care labor trends continue to run tight in 2019 which should bode well for AMN into 3Q19 earnings.  We added AMN as a long in 2018, and initially the stock did very well,  but AMN guided lower on a contract loss heading into 1Q19 and we've been on our back foot ever since.  When they guided lower, AMN was setting up to comp the premium placement headwinds the company experienced in early 2018 and unfortunately the contract loss put our thesis on hold.  But the data and the anecdotes have held up.  Heading into 3Q19 results, we continue to see much of what we anticipated with our original thesis with some additional positives emerging as well.  For example, the Kaiser strike scheduled to begin October 1 could be an isolated event, but it could be a sign that worker frustration is boiling over.  Health Care worker average weekly hours continue to climb to multi-year highs putting stress on the system.  Also, our tracker data continues to point to accelerating activity well above prior readings.  

Key Points We Will Cover

  • Health Care Labor Demand remains tight with evidence of accelerating demand
  • Unemployed Registered Nurses remain scarce
  • Nurse Tracker data is accelerating
  • Nurse Supply is rising according to NCLEX and the Current Population Survey
  • SEIU-UHW has held a vote and plans to strike Oct. 14-20. Nurses are not part of the strike but may elect not to cross the picket line causing further labor disruption
  • Macro Quads and Factors are tailwinds for AMN
  • The path to low $70s for AMN shares

Thomas Tobin
Managing Director


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Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy



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