Below is a brief excerpt transcribed from today's edition of The Macro Show hosted by CEO Keith McCullough.
Let's talk about oil.
When I woke up this morning, oil prices were up around 7.5%, coming down from 10.5%. Now it's back to 10.5%. Why is this important? If only because it is one of the biggest oil days ever.
I would not be shorting oil or energy stocks on this move preparing for a Quad 2 or 3. Remember, there is another good six weeks between now and earning season that we’ll get the chance to buy things on pullback.
Again, don’t panic.
But I definitely would not be shorting oil or energy here. Oil above trend would certainly be bullish, but will the volatility break down before trend? That’s something that can determine whether or not this is a trend.
A trade is not a trend. You can have oil above trend or below trend.
Having oil above trend it would be close to 58.75 (which it is currently). Having it below trend would need some patience and for oil volatility to break down and stay below 30.
Do you think all this is going to provide more oil volatility or less? Whatever you think, I don’t really care. Nor do I care what I think. I’m just going to do what the market is doing.
What happens in 24 hours if we light up the Iranian sky? Will that be good or bad for oil volatility and price? I don’t know. We see complacency as far as the eye can see on geopolitical risk outlook, so just wait and watch.
If you want to make a bet that’s going to be on you.
