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US STRATEGY - VERTIGO

For the past two days, the pattern of the move to the downside is clearly more aggressive than that of the recent push higher. On Wednesday, US stocks were weaker for the second straight day; the S&P declined 0.66%.European sovereign credit contagion concerns remained the big headwind for stocks today, as the RISK AVERSION trade is continues to press on. The VIX was up 4.4% yesterday and now up 14% for the week.

 

The Dollar index was up 0.94% yesterday and is up 2.69% this week.

 

On the MACRO front, the labor market is providing some positive economic momentum in the US and the focus will shift to the April payrolls data due out on Friday. Yesterday, ADP private employment was up 32,000 last month, slightly above the 30K consensus. In addition, February and March were revised up a cumulative 69,000. Services sector payrolls rose 50,000 in April following a 54,000 gain in March, while manufacturing payrolls were also a bright spot, up 29,000 on the back of a revised 19,000 increase in March.

 

Also on the MACRO calendar, ISM non-manufacturing was unchanged at 55.4 in April vs. a Bloomberg survey of 56.0. The bulk of the core components were also little changed on the month, but the takeaways from the report are still consistent with the recovery momentum theme. The pace of improvement is slowing, however.

 

While the labor market is providing some positive momentum to the RECOVERY trade, the China tightening concerns are rattling the Chinese market and providing a headwind to the RECOVERY trade. Last night, the Shanghai Composite Index finished down 4.1% and is now down 16.4% for the year-to-date.

 

The Hedgeye Risk Management Models have all nine S&P sectors broken on TRADE.

 

For the second day in a row, the low beta sectors (Healthcare (XLV), Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) were the best performing sectors. Both the XLP and the XLU were up on the day.

 

Two of the three worst performing sectors were the Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB). Declining commodities and a strong dollar are providing a significant headwind for the group. A big laggard in the XLI was GE trading down 2.6% yesterday. Yesterday, crude dropped 3% and is now down 7.3% over the past three days.

 

Another notable laggard was Consumer Discretionary (XLY). Within the XLY, Media names were notable laggards on the back of disappointing fiscal Q4 guidance out of NWSA, and TWX missed on the top-line. Gaming, lodging and Restaurant stocks also came under pressure. Also, the bulk of the stocks leveraged to the housing sector underperformed again today with the S&P 500 Homebuilding index down 3.6%.

 

In early trading, equity futures are trading above fair value as European markets look to have stabilized, while Asia was much weaker. Today sees a further raft of corporate earnings with weekly jobless numbers. As we look at today’s setup, the range for the S&P 500 is 32 points or 0.5% (1,160) downside and 2.2% (1,192) upside.

 

Today’s MACRO events: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • April Challenger Job Cuts
  • April ADP Employment
  • April ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


Death of FL Greatly Exaggerated

In advance of today’s Nike analyst day, it’s first meeting in three years, there was much speculation about an unveiling of a major company-owned retail rollout.  Taking this a bit further, there was also a belief that this announcement would be detrimental to Footlocker and its efforts to ultimately compete with Nike, it’s largest vendor.  Now that the presentation is complete, we remain confident that this speculative threat in the domestic market was greatly exaggerated.

 

The bottom line here is that Nike plans to add 280 stores, of varying formats, sizes, and product offerings on a GLOBAL basis over the next five years.  Management went on to further clarify that the North American market will likely see less owned-retail growth as Nike is mindful of an already advanced wholesale/retail partnership network here.  Overall, we heard nothing that would impair Foot Locker’s ability to achieve and potentially surpass its EBIT margin goals of 7.5+% over the next few years. 

 

Importantly, there were subtleties that stood out that may benefit FL and its relationship with Nike.  First, we heard a thorough discussion about the company’s sophisticated tools which allow Nike to analyze specific markets and potential sales opportunities across all points of distribution (not just Nike owned stores).  Secondly, we also heard the mention of House of Hoops as an example of how they can work with a partner to specifically target a local market with a very specific product offering and merchandising message.  While these are just little anecdotes, we continue to believe this is indicative of the positive transformation in the relationship and collaboration between the two companies.

 

Overall, our view on Foot Locker remains unchanged and favorable following what we heard today.  Nike’s product driven initiatives and investments in infrastructure will benefit the 3,500 unit chain well beyond the potential challenges Foot Locker may face from an uptick in Nike owned retail.  Importantly, the speculative threat centered on massive retail growth was overdone.

 

Eric Levine

Director


GC 1Q2010 PREVIEW

Expecting an in line quarter, it's going to be all about outlook and cost control

 

 

"Table drop, slot coin-in and visitation [at River Rock] witnessed double-digit improvements when compared to February 2009.  Unfortunately though, the benefit of these increases was offset by a table hold percentage of 14.9%, well below River Rock’s historical average.  While this is always very effective marketing, it did in combination with the Olympics related closure of Hastings Racecourse contribute to February 2010 revenues in BC declining by 7.6%, when compared to last year.  In January 2010 for comparison, BC revenues were essentially flat, when compared to January 2009."

- Milton Woensdregt, Chief Financial Officer

 

Milt kind of said it all with the comment above.  The local government numbers showing the gov't share of provincial casino revenue numbers also tells us that revenues in 1Q2010 should be modestly down y-o-y.  Everyone already knows this, so in this quarter all eyes will be on March and April trends and cost controls.  We estimate that GC will report an in-line quarter with revenue of $94MM, slightly below the Street's $95MM estimate.  However, despite lower revenues, GC should be able to slightly exceed the consensus EBITDA estimate of $31MM.

 

Aside from the poor hold at River Rock in February and closure for part of the quarter at Hastings, the y-o-y comparisons are pretty clean - that is, no weather or major hold issues in either quarter.  Local share of provincial casino revenues data implies that Great Canadian's BC casinos had a 5% y-o-y decline in gaming revenues.  We're estimating a 4% y-o-y decline in BC gaming revenues.  On the call we will be focused on:

  • March and April trends.  We think March was pretty uninspiring - the data implies 3-4% degradation from last year
  • Early signs of feedback on the new player tracking rewards program
  • Feedback on additions at Georgian Downs and View Royal and the slot refresh at Nova Scotia
  • Evidence of control and ROI on their marketing expenditures

 

1Q2010 Detail

 

We estimate that River Rock will report $29MM of revenues and $11.4MM of EBITDA.

  • We estimate 4% decline or $22.3MM of gaming revenues, assuming:
    • 7% increase in drop, 18% hold; 10% increase in slot coin in and 7% win rate
    • In 1Q09 table hold was 21.9% and slot win % was 7.1%
  • 15% increase in other revenues driven by a 10% increase in F&B and a 29% increase in hotel revenues
  • $17.3MM of operating expenses, which compares to $17.4MM last quarter and equates to a 3% increase from 1Q09, driven by an increase in marketing costs.

GC 1Q2010 PREVIEW - RIVER ROCK

 

We estimate Boulevard will report $16.9MM of revenues and $7.8MM of EBITDA.

  • We estimate a 4% decline in gaming revenues to $14.4MM, assuming:
    • 5% decrease in drop and 19.15% hold; 6% decrease in slot coin in and a 7% win rate
    • 1Q09 has an easy hold comparison of 18.3% on tables and slot win % of 6.9%
  • We estimate that other revenues are flat relative to 4Q09 results at $2.5MM or up 5% y-o-y
  • $9.1MM in operating expenses, down 3% y-o-y

GC 1Q2010 PREVIEW - boulevard

 

We estimate that Vancouver Island properties will report a $10MM of revenues and $5.9MM of EBITDA.

  • We estimate a 2% decline in gaming revenues to $9.1MM, assuming:
    • 3% decrease in drop and 23.5% hold; 2% decrease in slot coin in and a 7.2% win rate
    • 1Q09 table hold was 24.2% on tables and slot win % of 7.2%
  • We estimate that other revenues will increase to 860k.
  • Operating expenses flat to 4Q09

GC 1Q2010 PREVIEW - vancouver

 

Other properties:

  • We expect Nova Scotia revenue of $10.8MM and $2.6MM of EBITDA.  We actually expect gaming revenues to be up almost 4% at the Nova Scotia properties this quarter and costs to be in-line with last quarter.
  • We expect Georgian Downs to be flat with last quarter revenue wise and EBITDA wise.
  • Great American properties should be up handsomely due to the FX benefits of a strong Canadian dollar.
  • Racetrack revenues should be down about 10% y-o-y given the closure at Hastings.

Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

OEH "YOUTUBE"

In preparation for OEH's Q1 earnings on Thursday, we've highlighted management's forward looking commentary from its Q4 conference call. 

 

 

TRENDS & GUIDANCE:

  • "To drive revenue and EBITDA, we have minimal opportunities now to cut cost further.  It’s now about the revenue line."
  • "The key focus in 2010 will now be on the sale of developed real estate.  In January, we completed the first phase of Porto Cupecoy, our 184 condominium development on the Dutch side of St. Martin in the Caribbean. To-date, 99 apartments have been sold and closings have now commenced."
    • "Gross sales to-date are over $68 million, of which $34 million has been received and invested in the project.  This leaves the further $34 million of closing proceeds, which will be received over the next few months as units are handed over to the buyer.  This will be sufficient to repay the outstanding debt and the residual construction costs, which means that we will then have further 85 units left to sell, three of that which should generate free cash flows of approximately $60 million.  This cash flow does not include additional projected sales of our mega-yacht marina slips, all commercial component, which we anticipate to produce the further $15 million of net cash...We will definitely sell the units within the two-year period. "
  • "So, the weather, has hit us on three fronts in 2010.  Firstly in Peru, major flooding, we have to close the Cuzco-Machu Picchu railroad, which will be reopened in early April.  This will have an impact on our hotels business, and whilst it is, we hope a non-recurring item... Net of insurance, we expect to lose between $2 to $4 million of EBITDA for the year."
  • "We completed two great acquisitions in January, the Grand Hotel Timeo and the Villa Sant’Andrea in Sicily, backed by successful equity raise from our shareholders.  Both properties are currently closed and will reopen in late May as Orient-Express property.  These along with the new Peru Hotel, Rio Sagrado, Hotel das Cataratas in Brazil, the villas at Jimbaran Puri Bali and the expanded Cambodian property will add to our portfolio in 2010."
  • "Our January revenues were up just over 10% ....  This growth was dominated by our rest-of-the-world properties, particularly the southern hemisphere ones, which are currently in high season."
    • "Copacabana Palace was up almost 40%, Russia up a healthy 6%, and both Africa and Asia in positive territories."
  •  "Quarter one bookings are currently tracking 6% ahead of the same time in 2009.  However, we expect ADR to be slightly lower in the first quarter, due in part to aggressive pricing decisions for shoulder season months. Quarter two bookings are currently tracking 10% below 2009 levels, but this gap is closing each month. One month ago, the gap was 60%. The equivalent numbers for quarter three, 8% down at the moment and this was 14% one month ago; obviously the third quarter is our high season quarter."
  • "Bookings for our Trains and Cruises businesses, 23% ahead of this time last year, and this is on a revenue basis. And VSOE, 25% ahead, encouraging news."
  • "The bulk of the Sicilian debt falls into the after-2012 category. The $60 million repayable in 2010 includes $27 million drawn on the Cupecoy project, which will be repaid over the next six months as the sold units are delivered and the final installments are collected from buyers."
  • "At this early stage, we’re expecting cash tax in 2010 to be in the range of 12 to $14 million."
  • "The largest maturing loan in 2011 is the European facility... it remains our intention to have this debt refinanced by no later than early in the fourth quarter of this year."
  • Properties update:
    • "Reid's and Madeira, La Residencia, Ritz Madrid, even Grand Hotel have big occupancy drops, but only small drops in rate.  I think actually the Grand has a slight increase in rate because the rooms mix change so much. So, I think having experienced a 15% drop in occupancy and only 5% drop in rate, one would like to think that the occupancy numbers would come back quicker and rate tends to follow."
  • "Booking windows in Brazil have been very short.  Copacabana Palace is sitting 16% up on rooms booked at the moment, but that is a small proportion of the overall number of rooms that they would book for the year.  On the other hand, the Peruvian hotels tend to be booked sort of eight, nine months on average in advance and they are sitting mainly because of the closure of the train line at the moment; they are sitting between 10 and 15% down.
  • Lender refinancing to credit facility: " The tone is very good.  Clearly, the pricing is going to be difference to the current pricing which is I think 70 – 90 basis points on that facility.  A year ago, it was going to be, if we’d done it a year ago, [inaudible] we would have been easily over 300 basis points, but I still feel today we can achieve something in mid-200s."
  • Portfolio customer breakout: "It’s about 40% North America, 40% Europe, and 20% Rest of the World, and it’s quite interesting when you look at the spend per capita. I was in Russia recently and at the top of the league table were the Russians, lined number two were the Americans, UK was number three. We came to see that in the domestic market, the domestic customer is the higher spender followed by Americans."

Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way . . . Hedgeye Is Long of Oil

Position: Long Oil via the etf USO

 

In the last nine weeks, we have seen a bifurcation in the price of oil and copper.  While the correlation is still high, oil has outperformed Dr. Copper. Specifically, copper is down 8% over the last nine weeks, while oil is up 1%.  Prices matter.

 

As we have often said, Dr. Copper received her PH.D in economics for her work as a leading indicator.  As Keith mentioned in the Early Look today, Dr. Copper seems to be signaling that global growth may be set to moderate.   This, of course, isn’t surprising given the steps that China has taken to slow loan growth and property construction.  In a tight note yesterday, Darius Dale highlighted a few of these points, the most important of which are:

  • China's Banking Regulatory Commission ordered 78 state-controlled companies to exit real estate sector;
  • Chinese Banks are now asking for 40%-50% down payments  for second mortgages;
  • In March, Chinese officials raised deposit requirements for buyers at land auctions to 20% of the minimum price to increase costs for developers; and
  • China's State Council raised down payment requirements for second homes to at least 50% and have pegged mortgage rates to no lower than 110% of the benchmark rate.

This headwind is obviously bearish for the price of Dr. Copper, since China consumes roughly 1/3 of the world’s copper, a large part of which goes into construction.

 

In contrast, oil has a more favorable set up.  We bought oil earlier this morning in the Virtual Portfolio as it neared its TAIL Line.   Two bullish points that we want to highlight on oil this morning relate to geo-political risk and drilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

We do not have the intention of being alarmists, but if the event in Times Square reminds us of anything, it is that terrorism is alive and well.  While the car bomb has been described as “amateurish”, the fact remains that the perpetrator was able to drive and park a car bomb in Times Square.  Given the amount of news in the news cycle in recent days relating to Goldman Sachs and sovereign debt issues, the brazen nature of this attempted attack was left somewhat unanalyzed.  The reality is, even if there were merely a hundred such individuals in the United States, they could do serious damage.  The ultimate derivative of such attacks is that the United States accelerates military action in the Middle East, which puts at risk global oil supply, at least in the short term.

 

Over time, despite assurances from each respective President that this would not occur, the United States has become increasingly dependent on foreign sources of oil.  In the table below, we’ve outlined the U.S.’s increasing dependence on foreign oil over time, which, in aggregate, emphasize the increased geopolitical risk factor that should be incorporated into the price of oil.

 

Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way . . . Hedgeye Is Long of Oil - Dependence of Foreign Oil

 

The other important point to emphasize, which is bullish for oil, is the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.  The oil spill is quickly becoming the most substantial potential environmental disaster in decades in the United States.  For comparison purposes, the Exxon Valdex spill was 11 million gallons, but in this situation, a well is leaking, which has many times the capacity of a tanker.

 

We are already seeing the impact of this spill from a policy perspective.  Specifically, Governor Schwarzenegger from California has withdrawn his support for expanded drilling off the coast of California.  In the worst case scenario, offshore drilling in the United States is dramatically curtailed, or halted outright.  In a more realistic scenario, costs for offshore drilling from insurance and increased infrastructure increase dramatically.  Regardless, the nominal cost of drilling offshore in the United States will go up, and supply will tighten on the margin.

 

In the shorter term, the oil slick could disrupt production in the Gulf.  The key offloading port for oil in the United States is Louisianan Offshore Oil Port, which is where many foreign tankers offload their oil.  If the slick gravitates towards that area, it could halt 300K barrels of daily oil production and 1.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas product, which is equivalent to a major hurricane shut in.  The slick would obviously slow the offloading of tankers as well.

 

We are buyers of oil this morning as it trades down towards it’s long term TAIL line.

 

Daryl G. Jones
Managing Director

 

Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way . . . Hedgeye Is Long of Oil - Oil v Copper


Fade Fear: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

As prices fall and volume/volatility spikes, we are tightening the durations in our models. Managing risk in down tapes is what we specialize in. I love days like this.

 

As of 1030AM EST time, here are our refreshed risk management lines for the SP500: 

  1. Overhead resistance remains material at the TRADE line of 1192; use that as a stop sign for your shorts
  2. Immediate term support (oversold line) = 1160
  3. Intermediate term TREND support = 1144 

The gravitational suck of the math in our model suggests that there is a heightening probability that we take a good hard look at 1144, but that doesn’t mean we are going there today. The slingshot bounce off of 1160 could easily drive a +2.7% move to 1192 and nothing will have changed.

 

The reality of the math remains. The SP500 is broken from a TRADE perspective and holding TREND line support.

 

It’s time to fade fear, from a price.

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Fade Fear: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - S P


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.57%
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