While our forecast is showing some possible improvement in data by Q4, we still likely have months of black hole risk left as Quad 4 conditions (i.e. U.S. Growth and Inflation slowing) hit financial markets.
As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale explain in the clip above from The Macro Show, the worst economic data for the U.S. will be reported in August, September and October.
In other words, we could be well into Q4 before our investing playbook starts to change.
“We’ve gotten the question from a lot of hedge funds: ‘Hasn’t the market priced in Quad 4 in Q3?’ It obviously hasn’t,” McCullough explains.
“We’re going to have to actually get into the fourth quarter to actually get that [potentially Quad 2] data and there’s a big black hole in front of it.
And October is when we get Q3 earnings reported. You’re going to enter that period where people don’t believe the Fed, don’t believe Trump, and they don’t believe the companies. What could possibly go wrong?”
Watch the full clip above for more.