Investors that simply stayed defensively positioned knowing we’ve been sliding down the backside of the economic cycle since the end of last summer have had a good year – and, no, I’m not referencing the “YTD” type. I know this is a hot-button topic, and I encourage the debate, but it’s unlikely that I’ll ever be convinced that fund manager performance should NOT be measured on a 1, 3, and 5 year rolling basis, not from January 1st when all of our compensation schemes reset.
Obviously there are many more ways to skin the cat when you broaden out our views on The Cycle to other asset classes, like Gold and WTI Crude Oil being UP/DOWN +18%/-9%, and +27%/-18% since 5/17 and 9/27, respectively.
There are many other examples (e.g. LONG Homebuilders vs. SHORT Transports) of how investors can apply our research and risk management signals to augment their respective processes. And the privilege of contributing to those unique processes gets me out of bed at the crack of dawn every morning – even when I desperately need more sleep.