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Wall Street expects a strong environment for Retailers in the back half of 2019. Consensus expectations are for 5% in revenue growth for year-end 2019 and 4% operating profit growth.

“No way in hell are those numbers going to happen,” says Retail analyst Brian McGough.

Why? Retailers have had “killer sales growth” for some time now, McGough says, and cost pressures have prevented strong sales from flowing to the bottom line. McGough estimates revenue growth at 2.5% and operating profit down -5%.

If our Retail team’s estimate is right for negative earnings growth in 2019…

“We haven’t seen that type of erosion since the Great Recession,” McGough says. “I’m not calling for a Great Recession but I am calling for an earnings recession that’s consistent with our Macro team’s earnings recession call.”

Watch the full clip above for more.

McGough: Worst Retail Earnings Since The Great Recession - investing ideas