Good morning, you can enjoy today's The Macro Show with Communications analyst Andrew Freedman and Restaurants and Consumer Staples analyst Jordan Minello HERE and access the associated slides (once they become available) HERE.
hedgeye's top 3 things
Below are the top three things from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough’s Macro Notebook this morning:
1) BOUNCE – Both longstanding Bearish @Hedgeye TRENDs and new ones bounce. We’d sell both types this morning as the bounces aren’t telling us anything new – on the longstanding side, big things like KOSPI, Copper, Oil, then the new and developing bears like U.S. Tech and Consumer Discretionary head the list.
2) VIX – We measure and map these bounces in beta within the lens of volatility – our signal says this is a Phase Transition in U.S. Equity Vol in particular with the new low-end of our VIX Risk Range being the former top-end of the range = 15.37-25.67 (this should happen during Quad 4 in Q3).
3) TECH – Consensus is still long of Tech – you probably know that but if you want to see that just look at the implied volatility DISCOUNT of -2% (vs. 30-day realized) in the mainline Tech ETF (XLK) this morning. S&P Tech Earnings are now -7% y/y and slowing at a faster rate.
Macro Insight
LaCalle: A Day of Reckoning For The Global Economy
Wall Street is once again on the wrong side of global growth. European and Asian economic data is deteriorating, says economist and author Daniel Lacalle.
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“I’d call right now the day of reckoning,” Lacalle says, in this video excerpt of our soon-to-be released podcast In The Arena. “The entire message from mainstream consensus is ‘Yes there was a global slowdown,’ but using the trade war as an excuse.” |
CLICK HERE for more.
