Yesterday was the first of what we think will be many #Quad4 days in the third quarter of 2019. Yes, the market (S&P 500) was up small on thin volume, but the dispersion in performance at the sector and style factor level was telling...
...The Cycle mattered yesterday, but what about over a more relevant/investable time horizon? Would it be fair to quote returns of the aforementioned exposures from the date we published our then-contrarian view that the US GDP, CPI, and Profits cycles peaked in 3Q18 and would each trend lower over at least the NTM?
If all you did was express that cycle view across macro markets and ignored the noise throughout, you’ve absolutely crushed it (and 99.9% of your competition).