• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Here

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Slot guys can do little wrong in the eyes of investors.  It probably makes sense.  Who cares about this quarter?

BYI is up 7% since April 5th which is pretty good. Considering that the company punted pretty badly on April 6th, that is a pretty remarkable performance. This just goes to show you how much the institutions want to own this sector and for good reason. IGT reported a low quality quarter and, as we suspected, the stock rocketed higher. In sympathy, BYI appreciated over 5% on the day.

So what should we expect on Thursday night?  We actually feel better about their quarter post the IGT call. Generally there shouldn’t be a lot of surprises since they already pre-announced… but of course the magic is where the shortfall comes from. Market share probably dipped – Konami may have shipped 2,500 units this quarter – and probably will stay low for another couple of quarters. We are getting positive feedback from BYI’s new games but it will take a bit of time before they show up materially in the numbers.

We’re at $0.53 for the quarter, including Rainbow, since it’s technically not discontinued until next quarter, and in-line with consensus at $0.58 for the June quarter. However, we are above consensus for FY2011. Below are the details: 

  • Product sales of $72.5MM with a gross margin of 50%
    • 3K machines shipped to NA, comprising of 2,600 replacement units and 400 new units
    • 1,500 international shipments
    • $14.5K ASP’s
    • $7.4MM of “other product sales”
  • Systems sales of $52.5MM at a 74% margin
    • We know that the Marina Bay Sands revenues won’t be booked until the June quarter
    • We suspect margins should be higher than usual since revenues should be heavily weighted towards software vs. new system installs
  • Gaming operations revenue of $66MM with margins at 72%
    • Normally March is a seasonally better quarter than December, however, we know this quarter and the next several will be impacted by the removal of the Alabama units
    • We estimate a $3MM revenue impact from Alabama this quarter and a $4.8MM impact for the June quarter
  • Other stuff:
    • SG&A of $52.5MM
    • R&D of $20MM
    • Net interest expense of $2.5MM, which will step down next quarter and going forward since interest on the R/C steps down 50 bps and BYI will have $80MM more of cash on hand, barring a stock buyback
    • D&A of $5.9MM
    • Tax rate of 35%