"It's not what you look at that matters. It's what you see."
-Henry David Thoreau
That's my favorite quote. It really speaks volumes to the breadth of manners in which investors approach Macro Risk Management. Differentiation is in the interpretation of data and market signals.
Keith McCullough, Christian Drake and I don't look at the world through the same narrative-based or big-bang-theory-based lens most other investors use. We're not smart enough for that. And acknowledging that we need to consistently review changing data is both our plight and our edge.
They'll try to bounce 'em today, but investors should note that both the SPY and QQQ snapped Keith's TREND lines of support on yesterday's selloff. That's confirming of the view that this vol. spike will NOT be "episodic and non-trending". Volatility clusters.
Looking at the Fed's reaction function, they know they overdid it with Quantitative Tightening and rate hikes in 2017-18. They know. They just need some ammo in the form of #Quad4 data to avoid looking like the politicized institution the Federal Reserve has become.
They're gonna get it.
While I'm not certain if anyone is analyzing rate-of-change data on the U.S. GDP cycle still, I am certain that the U.S. economy is still slowing per the 10am release of the Durable Goods and CapEx data: