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The Chinese Economy Has Not Yet Bottomed - 05.09.2019 China deal cartoon

The recent April high-frequency hard data out of mainland China confirmed what our market signal did recently: that the Chinese economy had not yet bottomed. Specifically:

  1. Retail Sales growth slowed -150bps to 7.2% YoY, the slowest RoC since MAY ’03;
  2. YTD Fixed Assets Investment growth slowed -20bps to 6.1% YoY, the slowest RoC since DEC; and
  3. Industrial Production growth slowed -310bps to 5.4% YoY, the slowest RoC since NOV, which itself tied for the slowest pace since the throes of NOV ’08.

Investors should note my use of all-caps for the month of “APRIL” because I am calling attention to the fact that these data slowed before the impact of Trump’s latest ratcheting up of Sino-US trade tensions in MAY.

The Chinese Economy Has Not Yet Bottomed - China Retail Sales YoY