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Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from our intra-month update to ETF Pro Plus, our monthly newsletter of our Macro team's favorite ETF ideas. Click here to learn more about ETF Pro Plus.

The Chinese Economy Has Not Yet Bottomed - 05.09.2019 China deal cartoon

The recent April high-frequency hard data out of mainland China confirmed what our market signal did recently: that the Chinese economy had not yet bottomed. Specifically:

  1. Retail Sales growth slowed -150bps to 7.2% YoY, the slowest RoC since MAY ’03;
  2. YTD Fixed Assets Investment growth slowed -20bps to 6.1% YoY, the slowest RoC since DEC; and
  3. Industrial Production growth slowed -310bps to 5.4% YoY, the slowest RoC since NOV, which itself tied for the slowest pace since the throes of NOV ’08.

Investors should note my use of all-caps for the month of “APRIL” because I am calling attention to the fact that these data slowed before the impact of Trump’s latest ratcheting up of Sino-US trade tensions in MAY.

The Chinese Economy Has Not Yet Bottomed - China Retail Sales YoY