• It's Coming...

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Keith added GIL to his list of recent shorts in retail before the close yesterday. It's less a call on the quarter (we actually expect a strong one, even without extrapolating HBI’s blowout), rather on what’s ahead thereafter. Following a great set-up in Q1, it gets even better in Q2 with favorable gross margin compares down 1300bps (mix, manufacturing, and cotton). Looking through to the next few quarters the tailwinds ease and become stiff headwinds in a hurry. With cotton prices testing new highs intraday (~$0.85), continued outperformance will require strong consumer demand to offset elevated commodity prices. As a reminder, GIL’s cotton exposure accounts for ~33% of COGS.  Recall that while Hanesbrands frequently cites its ability to increases prices as an offset to cost pressures, Gildan is in a less defensible position given its lack of branded product.

GIL: KM Short, Based on Post Q2 Headwinds - GIL S 4 10