Market Insights

MACRO

05/16/19 08:35 AM EDT

CHART OF THE DAY: US #GrowthSlowing, Faster

Keith McCullough

@keithmccullough

Darius Dale

Editor's Note: Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by our Macro team. Click here to learn more.

This morning’s APR Retail Sales and Industrial Production data confirmed the ongoing narrative of the US economy “slowing at a faster rate”:

Headline Retail Sales growth slowed -70bps to 3.1% YoY in APR;
The growth rate of the Retail Sales Control Group slowed -80bps to 2.9% YoY in APR; and
Industrial Production growth slowed -143bps to 0.89% YoY in APR, the slowest RoC since FEB ’17.
Recall that Industrial Production, the Retail Sales Control Group, and Headline Retail Sales are currently the highest, second-highest, and fifth-highest weighted factors in our 30-factor, dynamically re-weighting predictive tracking algorithm for US GDP growth. The net result of these data is an equally outsized drop in our nowcast for 2Q19E Real GDP growth to 2.54% YoY/1.47% QoQ SAAR, which is roughly in line with where Bloomberg Consensus and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model were prior to today’s releases.

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