CHART OF THE DAY: US #GrowthSlowing, Faster
Editor's Note: Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by our Macro team. Click here to learn more.
|This morning’s APR Retail Sales and Industrial Production data confirmed the ongoing narrative of the US economy “slowing at a faster rate”:
- Headline Retail Sales growth slowed -70bps to 3.1% YoY in APR;
- The growth rate of the Retail Sales Control Group slowed -80bps to 2.9% YoY in APR; and
- Industrial Production growth slowed -143bps to 0.89% YoY in APR, the slowest RoC since FEB ’17.
- Recall that Industrial Production, the Retail Sales Control Group, and Headline Retail Sales are currently the highest, second-highest, and fifth-highest weighted factors in our 30-factor, dynamically re-weighting predictive tracking algorithm for US GDP growth. The net result of these data is an equally outsized drop in our nowcast for 2Q19E Real GDP growth to 2.54% YoY/1.47% QoQ SAAR, which is roughly in line with where Bloomberg Consensus and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model were prior to today’s releases.