Editor's Note: Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.
Into yesterday’s ISM release and Fed decision, the Fed Regional Surveys were tipping further weakness in the manufacturing sector in April as still soft global demand, an ongoing (trade policy related) inventory overhang and harder comps all continued to conspire against domestic industrial activity.
Indeed, those realities manifest conspicuously in the April ISM which printed a 30-month low alongside steep -5.7pts and -5.1pts declines across New Orders and Employment, respectively.
The sharp decline in April Auto sales served to further underscore the trending deceleration in manufacturing, while casting some uncertainty around the apparent resurgence in domestic consumerism evident in the Retail Sales/PCE data to close 1Q.