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 Editor's Note: Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

CHART OF THE DAY: No Earnings Recession (Yet) - z445

If you think it’s fake news that the SP500 and NASDAQ closed at all-time highs yesterday because “earnings were better than expected”, it’s not. They’ve not only been better than expected, they’re not in an Earnings Recession, yet… 

In order to avoid any confirmation bias with our call that the probability is rising that year-over-year US Earnings can be down -5-8% by Q2 and Q3 of 2019, we nowcast that view with every single earnings report, daily. 

As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day (#process slide 60 in our Q2 Macro Themes deck): 

  1. 111 of the SP500’s companies have reported Q119 year-over-year EPS growth of +1.86%
  2. 32 of 67 Financials companies have reported Q119 year-over-year EPS growth of +1.1%
  3. 3 of 29 Energy companies have reported Q119 year-over-year EPS growth of -13.8%
  4. 20 of 70 Industrial companies have reported Q119 year-over-year EPS growth of +4.4%
  5. 11 of 63 Consumer Discretionary companies have reported Q119 year-over-year EPS growth of -0.1%
  6. 10 of 68 Technology companies have reported Q119 year-over-year EPS growth of -13.1%
  7. 2 of 28 Utilities companies have reported Q119 year-over-year EPS growth of +14.1%
  8. 3 of 32 REITS companies have reported Q119 year-over-year EPS growth of +13.0% 

CHART OF THE DAY: No Earnings Recession (Yet) - Chart of the Day