To no one's surprise, Bibi Netanyahu pulled out yet another victory in Israel's latest national election two weeks ago. For those who had been skeptical of Bibi's chances for success, they needed to be reminded of Mark Twain's famous quip about rumors of (political) death being "greatly exaggerated."
- Going forward, the real threat to Bibi is not the electorate; it's the long arm of Israeli law. Anticipated indictments against Bibi and his wife for corruption will not be going away despite the victory, and they are unlikely to be deflected by political attempts to "immunize" the PM.
But what's of greater, more immediate interest now is what the Bibi victory means for the peace process with Palestinians - and to remind, there is precious little left of that so-called "process." The forcing function here is the Jared Kushner peace plan, rumored to be floated later this spring. I'd pay as much attention to what Jared and co-author Jason Greenblatt are concocting as to the drama unfolding with Israeli courts over Netanyahu corruption.
- My own bottom line is that the Kushner plan, whatever it is (and it now appears not even to include Palestinian state-hood!) has a near-zero chance of success. The seeding of U.S. support by President Trump to Bibi in the weeks prior to the election soured any chances of Palestinian cooperation. Further, Bibi's idea of how "Palestinian sovereignty" might be manifested in any deal has always mocked the very concept of sovereignty.
- Even more worrisome is the potential regional fall-out. Rob Satloff, the President of the Washington Institute and one of the best Middle East analysts in Washington, recently wrote that floating the Kushner plan in the current environment is "lose-lose" - for U.S.-Israeli relations, for the future of the Palestinian Authority, and for U.S.-Saudi ties; by the way, Satloff adds, it could also provide "a powerful boost to the mullahs in Iran."
As Satloff concluded, "Right now the plan is still Kushner's, not Trump's. For the sake of important U.S. interests in the Middle East, the president should ensure it stays that way."
To be clear, whatever transpires in this "peace lane" is not going to unsettle markets; unlike other, more significant events in the region - Iran's militias on the march, U.S. troop withdrawals from Syria, the scattering of ISIS adherents - the short-term implications of diplomatic movement by Kushner and Trump will not be tectonic.
- Nevertheless, watch this unfolding drama in the weeks ahead. A Bibi move, sure to be applauded by the president, to annex Palestinian territory - as Bibi did with the Golan - will extinguish any hope of a Palestinian state; the latter has been a dream for generations, and it now hangs by a thread after a quarter of a century of tragically missed opportunities.
