A Tale of Two Economies: Our Outlook For U.S. & China

04/17/19 08:27AM EDT

https://youtu.be/4GtSUWcgq1E

The U.S. and China could end up in two very different economic environments as we progress throughout 2019.

We remain data dependent and will react accordingly – but early signs suggest that the U.S. will remain in stagflationary Quad 3 (growth slowing, inflation rising) for the rest of the year, while China heads into Quad 2 or even Quad 1 (both environments typified by Chinese Growth accelerating).

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in the clip above that while it’s always challenging forecasting where we’re going, any forecast must start with where we’ve come from.

“China starts slowing in 2Q of ’17, then [has] eight quarters in a row for China slowing. At the same time the U.S. had nine quarters in a row [of growth].” McCullough explains in a recent edition of The Macro Show. “Doing macro the right way starts at a bare minimum of being respectful of economic history. What quadrant were you in? Now you can start to build the case for what quadrant you can go into because those numbers will be reported against the prior quadrant.”

Watch the full clip above for more.

A Tale of Two Economies: Our Outlook For U.S. & China - the macro show

© 2019 Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC. The information contained herein is the property of Hedgeye, which reserves all rights thereto. Redistribution of any part of this information is prohibited without the express written consent of Hedgeye. Hedgeye is not responsible for any errors in or omissions to this information, or for any consequences that may result from the use of this information.