The commencement of 2019 marked the 11th consecutive year in which we have been publishing our quarterly investment themes, which are three top-down catalysts our models indicate are increasingly likely to drive returns that our proprietary sentiment indicators suggest investors are not yet broadly positioned for. 2018 was another a banner year for our team in terms of helping our clients proactively prepare for each of the major shifts in the investment landscape and we’re excited for the opportunity set 2019 shall bring us.

As such, we’re delighted to invite you to join us for our Q2 2019 Macro Themes presentation on Thursday, April 4th at 11am ET. With The Machine operating as ruthlessly and efficiently as it ever has, the need for investors to have the right Macro Risk Management overlay has never been more important.

CLICK HERE to access the webcast and associated slides, which will become available shortly prior to the start of the presentation (refresh this link for access).

2Q19 Macro Themes:

  • USA:  Three  Quad 3’s | In the wake of a harrowing entry into Quad 4 in Q4 and the associated, proactively predictable monetary policy pivot, the multi-quarter rotation into domestic stagflationary conditions is set to begin.  While Quad 4 and Quad 3 are both defined by slowing growth, a discrete and extended move into Quad 3 carries specific cross-asset and factor exposure implications.  We’ll detail how to risk manage the traversal into Quad 3 and how to best be positioned for a protracted run in that particular regime.
  • Profit #Recession │ The confluence of accelerating, late-cycle wage inflation, ongoing deceleration economic growth both globally and domestically, as well as a fading fiscal impulse into peak earnings cycle comps and further, negative strong dollar translation effects are all set to conspire against peak corporate profitability as we move through 2019.  We’ll discuss the implications for both equities and credit in the context of an investor consensus that has still not sufficiently discounted the increasingly acute risk to corporate profits in the US. 
  • Long Ideas: Energy, EM, etc. | New Quad, Same Process.  We’ll detail the factor-level, sector-level and global, cross-asset playbook for effectively risk managing local Quad 3 conditions amidst a prospective re-emergence of global divergences in 2H19. 

Dial-In Participation Instructions:

  • Toll Free:
  • Toll:
  • UK: 0
  • Confirmation Number: 13687367

As always, our prepared remarks will be followed by a live, anonymous Q&A session. Please submit your questions to . Also, for those of you who cannot join us live, we will be distributing a replay video of the presentation shortly after it concludes.

Kind regards,

-The Hedgeye Macro Team