Editor's Note: The chart and brief excerpt were published in today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

Not everyone likes batting averages (especially if they have bad ones), but I do. I’m not Ackman, betting my whole “portfolio” on a few big upper slide deck home runs. I’m spreading my bets around the Global Macro Table of Asset Allocation

When my bets are wrong, everyone at the table knows the outcome. I have over 4,300 bets #timestamped in Real-Time Alerts going back to 2008. In hindsight, I wish I made more mistakes more frequently – then I’d have learned faster. 

‘But what about the now? What have you done for me lately KM? Awesome call in Q4, but you really sucked in January.’ 

Yep, “believe me”, if I make a mistake, boy do I hear about it. And, perversely… I like it. Even though I was late to transition my Quad Bets from Quad 4 to Quad 3 by 4-6 weeks this year, here’s how I’ve done on the long side in 2019: 

  • Longs: 30
  • Average Return: +1.7%
  • Gains: 29/30 = 97%
  • Losses: 1 (FXY 2/4/19 – 2/15/19: -0.38%) 

I know. Shoot me for dead with that -0.38% loss. 

CHART OF THE DAY: Real-Time Alerts Signal History - CoD RTA