Earlier today I presented the Demography Sector's outlook for the U.S. and global economy.
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PRESENTATION OUTLINE
- Near-Term U.S. Outlook (2019-2021)
- Demand for labor expands, while supply of labor shrinks.
- Are we near a wage-jumping, end-of-cycle dénoument? (that’s French for “brick wall”)
- Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook (2019-2060)
- Employment growth down for sure; productivity growth uncertain (but not looking good)
- Worker Δ% + Productivity Δ% = GDP Δ%: Still an iron law... even in the 2040s.
- Long-Term Global Outlook (2019-2045)
- Almost everywhere you look, older & slower-growing economies
- Why very-long-term U.S. prospects are in our own "Quad 2" (& looking pretty good there)
- Population Growth, Productivity, & Real Interest Rates
- Introducing the neoclassical model
- Exploring what determines “n” and “g” and “s”... and oh yes “the big r.”
- Closing Thoughts