Editor's Note: If you are an institutional investor interested in accessing this research email sales@hedgeye.com.
communications launch call today
We hope you can join us Friday, March 15th at 10 am ET for a data-rich, thematic overview of the Communications sector in the U.S. with a focus on media consumption, video and over-the-top (OTT). We will discuss why we believe more OTT entrants will accelerate the decline in pay-TV, change the relative value equation for first movers, and drive lower video ARPU industry-wide.
Importantly, we will also provide an overview of our investment process, position monitor, and proprietary tools we are developing to track trends across the industry.
short Netflix (nflx); 30% downside
We are hosting a separate call Friday, March 22nd at 10 am ET to review our short thesis on Netflix (NFLX). We believe investors are overestimating NFLX's pricing power and ability to drive further adoption in the U.S. with looming competition from content goliaths Disney (DIS) and WarnerMedia (T).
We surveyed 1,000 U.S. consumers, and 40% of Netflix subscribers said they were either 'likely' or 'extremely likely' to subscribe to the Disney+ service. With only so much time in a day and wallet share to be had, an increase in the number of streaming video options will dilute NFLX's relative value, resulting in increased churn and slower subscriber growth.
Meanwhile, we think international growth (a key element of the bull thesis) is bound to decelerate following a break-out year in 2018, and the bulls are overestimating the International TAM at NFLX's current price points.
key presentation topics
Included but not limited to:
- Investment process
- Media consumption trends
- Time spent by media type
- App downloads, MAUs, DAUs
- Digital video and OTT adoption
- Time spent by video service
- Demographics
- Connected devices
- Cord-cutting and OTT
- Pay-TV subscriber trends and forecast
- OTT service market share and forecast
- NPS by video service
- Content quality vs. quantity
- Rating trends
- vMVPD
- Competing for wallet share
- Household spend on entertainment
- SVOD pricing study
- OTT stacking
- Market model forecast (units, pricing)
Please call or e-mail institutional sales at sales@hedgeye.com with any questions.
