Acting President Juan Guaido returned to Caracas today on a commercial flight and was whisked by motorcade to a massive victory rally with his supporters. The Maduro regime had previously stated that Guaido had left the country illegally and would be arrested upon his return.
As of 6:00 pm ET Monday, Guaido had not been arrested or detained but the next few hours and days will be pivotal for both Guaido and Maduro. If Maduro arrests Guaido, it could provoke more intense protests and international pressure. The Trump Administration has all but threatened military action if Guaido is detained or harmed.
However the longer Maduro allows Guaido to operate as Veneuzela’s “Consitutional” acting President, the more Maduro is undermined.
Guaido left Veneuzela on February 22 to attend Richard Branson’s benefit concert across the border in Colombia and lead aid convoys to cross into Venezuela on February 23 that were blocked by the Maduro forces.
For the next week, Guaido attended a Lima Group summit in Bogota and met with Vice President Pence. He also made a tour of Latin America countries and was treated as a visiting head of state received by the Presidents of Argentina, Paraguay and Ecuador traveling on private aircraft with heavy security.
The coordination of Guaido’s movements has been extraordinary, and we believe US government is providing resources, logistical and intelligence assistance. Guaido announced his intended return to Venezuela on Sunday and was believed to have boarded an Ecuador government aircraft for the flight to Caracas. Instead that flight is understood to have landed in Bogota. Guaido’s movements after this point are murky but he appears to have either taken a private aircraft to Panama or boarded a commercial flight in Bogota connecting through Panama. Flight tracking websites were focused Monday morning on potential private aircraft destined for Caracas that Guaido was believed to be on.
After considerable subterfuge, Guaido arrived in Caracas on a COPA Airlines commercial flight from Panama. He was met by Ambassadors from France, Spain, Germany and others who used their diplomatic protection status and vehicles to ensure Guaido’s arrival and transport into Caracas.
The first hurdle was getting through Venezuela immigration which could have detained him for violating the travel ban. Instead, press reports indicate that the immigration officer processing Guaido addressed him by saying “welcome back Mr. President.”
But as night falls in Venezuela, the potential for mischief increases. So it is unclear if Maduro will allow Guaido to roam free in the country as the President of a competing government that seeks to eject him from power. The next several hours and days are critical.
Datanalisis, a respected Venezeula-based research firm, released poll results this weekend showing Guaido’s approval rating at 61 percent while Maduro’s stood at 14 percent. Moreover, the poll showed Guaido would win a free election with 73 percent support with the Chavistas garnering just 23 percent.
All eyes remain fixed on the military commanders who have stayed loyal to Maduro to date. But whether that will continue as the opposition grows and international pressure is increased.
Today the Trump Administration increased the pressure on Cuba for its role assisting Maduro to block the aid convoys and other measures to suppress the opposition. The State Department threatened to use the Libertad Act to create legal exposure to entities that do business with Cuba and actually lifted the ban on lawsuits against direct Cuban government interests. In 1996 Congress passed the Libertad Act that allows individual lawsuits to protect interests in confiscated properties by the Cuban government. The law is normally suspended every six months and therefore European, Canadian and other companies that do business in Cuba are protected from legal exposure. But the State Department put everyone on notice today with a simple 30-day suspension that suggests further enforcement of the act may be coming next.
For oil markets, political change can’t come soon enough as the longer the standoff continues, the risk increases that oil production in Venezuela will go to zero. US sanctions on Venezuela oil imports to the US have cut off Maduro’s cash machine and made nearly all global oil transactions with Venezuela radioactive.
Venezuela oil storage is near full capacity. PDVSA has resorted to floating storage in order to avoid closing its production and preventing damage to production facilities if shut down.
Moreover, the US ban on diluent to Venezuela has made it extremely difficult for oil to be refined for export. There was a press report today that a Roseneft shipment of diluent had arrived but without export customers or additional storage space, the Rosneft lifeline may not help.
It’s important to note here that the opposition and the military interests are aligned because neither wants oil production to go to zero because it will cause some permanent damage to production and refining facilities and make it difficult to ramp up the country’s main source of revenue. So the energy sanctions don’t only pressure Maduro, but also the military.
