NEWSWIRE: 2/25/19

  • Fully 51% of Millennials would support a Green New Deal funded by tax increases, the largest share of any generation. While this figure spotlights youth enthusiasm for sweeping political change, support for the plan decreases moving up the age ladder, with 57% of the Silent Generation opposed. (The Nation)
    • NH: It's no secret that the Democratic Party is moving left. And of all the items on the Democrats' new leftward agenda, the hottest is the Green New Deal. It has all the urgency and collectivism of the original 1930s New Deal. It even includes a WPA-style federal "jobs guarantee" to America's unemployed. Only this time, the New Deal has a "green" new-age twist--as though FDR were less interested in building dams, factories, airports, and highways than in tearing them all down in favor in windmills.
    • All of the leading Democratic 2020 contenders (thus far) are supporting the idea. Why? Because it's bold and visionary. And because it polls very well. When Americans hear a description of the program's goals, large majorities in both parties and in all age groups say they support it. Even when they are told that the program will be funded by higher taxes, the public is about evenly divided. (Some polls say the "yeas" have a slight edge, others the "nays.") Every poll agrees that voters under age 35 are vastly more supportive than voters over age 65.
    • To be sure, Democrats have reasons to be cautious about their new bandwagon. Most of the polls have been conducted by progressive think tanks like YouGov Blue and Data for Progress, which suggests at least some confirmation bias. Few voters, when polled, have yet heard of the Green New Deal and therefore most have not yet had time to reflect on it. Even when costs are mentioned, like raising taxes, these sound more abstract than the benefits (especially to young adults, few of whom pay a significant federal income tax). While some progressives couch the proposal as a fight against "environment racism," nonwhites are notably less supportive than whites. What's more, according to Pew, most Democratic voters (unlike most GOP voters) "would like to see their party move in a more moderate direction." The Green New Deal isn't moderation.
    • Still, Republicans also have reason to worry. However impractical, the Green New Deal is a bold effort to mobilize the nation around new common goals. It excites the optimism of the young, and it addresses well the Millennial desire for a better-planned national future and a closer sense of national community. By playing the sensible, "anti-socialist" party in 2020, the GOP may get some moderate neolibs back in their camp--while losing all the populist energy that helped Trump in 2016. And if the economy turns south in a manner that triggers calls for the real New Deal? Well, in that case, the GOP may find itself in an utterly unwinnable corner. Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.'s, "generational cycle" might then take a decisive turn back into one of his eras of "public action."

Millennials in Love with Green New Deal. NewsWire - Feb 24 chart2

  • Millennial contributor Clarisse Loughrey reviews Gen-X classic Reality Bites in honor of its 25th anniversary. Loughrey writes that Winona Ryder’s angst-ridden complaints ring hollow today, and must seem quaint to Millennial viewers—for example, having to wait “years” to land a dream home and a bona fide career. (The Independent)
    • NH: Loughrey's essay is a nice rejoinder to Xers who make fun of Millennials for whining about nothing. In one of Reality Bites's memorable scenes, Winona Ryder, just out of college, fears that she might be fired from her paid job in a TV studio and replaced by an unpaid intern. Today's Millennials, lined up as they are for such unpaid internships, might marvel: Wow, media companies once actually paid recent college grads for such jobs? Ryder agonizes over whether she should sacrifice her artistic autonomy for a corporate career that would guarantee her security (she ultimately chooses not to). This would resonate poorly among Millennials, a much smaller share of whom enjoy such a choice.
    • If you re-watch the movie today, you will probably be surprised at how much of the plot revolves obsessively around the pros and cons of becoming a "yuppie," which (back then) was a code word for young Boomers who earned a high salary while also being culturally progressive or "hip." And that should tell us something important about all generational coming-of-age movies. The central issue for the new generation is confronting, and somehow transcending, the prior generation's definition of success.
    • Think of the young Silent Generation, in movies like The Manchurian Candidate or Rebel Without a Cause, confronting the hegemonic power of G.I. war veterans who could run America without the help of "teenagers." Or think of young Boomers, in movies like The Graduate or American Graffiti, confronting the smooth and cautious and early-marrying careerism of the Silent. Now jump ahead to today's movies about Millennials. A surprising number are about young adults confronting the fixations of Gen Xers--like the chronic expletive-deleted edginess, the never-ending personal makeovers, and the risk-taking "hustle culture." (Just think of where Winona Ryder's fictional character would have ended up, 25 years after rejecting a corporate career path in favor of "creative" piece work.)
    • Lesson? In retrospect, we will look back at today's shows about Millennials and be struck by the X-iness of the world they are living in. Like any pop artifacts from a generation's young adulthood, they will only hint at where that generation was about to take America.
  • Among first-wave Homelanders, Googling themselves for the first time is becoming a rite of passage. Now in their early teens, the first subjects of “sharenting” have mixed feelings about finding all those baby photos—but for a generation online from day one, it’s proving to be just as disconcerting for those with privacy-conscious parents to find nothing at all. (The Atlantic)
    • NH: Photos and videos of the vast majority of today's kids are all over the Internet long before the kids themselves have any idea what the Internet is. According to a survey taken 7 years ago, a third of all kids (34%) have sonogram images uploaded on website before they are even born; by their second birthday, 92% of all kids have a digital online presence. Those percentages are no doubt higher today. Most of the images and profiles are put there by parents (hence the word "sharenting"), but not always. Many K-12 schools, sports clubs, and summer camps load up their own sites with kid pix mainly to please the parents by making them feel closer to their kids while the kids are away.
    • Parents and schools do all this uploading largely because they feel their kids are special and want to celebrate them. But they also want to protect them--and all this sharing sometimes puts their kids at risk. Porn fabricators have been known to edit child videos. Predators and kidnappers have been known to use online information to track a child's whereabouts. With common sense and by using apps with privacy settings, parents and schools can protect against these risks.
    • A more interesting issue, though, is how such ubiquitous sharing is affecting the Homelanders themselves. One consequence is that this new youth generation is behaving with greater self-control and circumspection, especially when they know that someone may be recording what they are doing. (See: "Kids These Days: Homelanders.") Like the teens of the 1950s, they don't want anything to end up on their "permanent record." Another is that they are gravitating toward means of communication--including apps and ploys like Snapchat, Wickr, Confide, Secret, Whisper, and "Finstagram"--that guarantee privacy and/or impermanence. (See: "Switching Off the Record.")
  • Once known for its ads featuring scantily clad women, Carl’s Jr. has released a “New Age” ad spot promoting its flexitarian burger. The spot, which features beach yoga, is a sign of the changing times—and the lengths to which fast food companies will go to try to attract Millennial diners. (MediaPost)
    • NH: The generational cycle keeps turning. The grizzled elder who once saluted the flag or shooed kids off his lawn is now... a swami spiritualist. And young male fast-food consumers, who once were lured to the newest "craving" by some transgressive sexual come on, are now...  dutifully getting in touch with their bodies at the request of this yoga-master reincarnation of the Dos Equis man. Fast food, like fast fashion, is cleaning up its act. (See: "Did You Know? Fashion Cleans Up Its Image.")
  • Another Gen Xer is here to opine about the lack of media coverage on his generation: political cartoonist Ted Rall. “Being deemed irrelevant is bad enough,” he jokes. “What will it do to our already close-to-nonexistent self-esteem to realize that everyone else in the country doesn't even know we're alive?” (Rasmussen Reports)
    • NH: Back in our 1991 book Generations, Bill and I introduced the concept of "active" versus "recessive" generations. They alternate. Active generations are children during relatively uneventful eras and come of age into adulthood during major social turning points (like the Great Depression/World War II or the Consciousness Revolution). For recessive generations, it's the reverse. Seen this way, active generations--like the G.I.s, Boomers, and Millennials--have certain common traits, among which are commanding a lot of attention from other generations. As for recessive generations like the Lost, the Silent, Gen Xers, and (likely) Homelanders? It's the reverse. No one really cares who you are. Even you don't much care who you are.
    • A great essay on this theme is "Whatever Happened to Generation X?" by Ashley Primis. Two eloquent quotes. "The boomers have for the most part ignored us, treating us like hapless little kids. And when the millennials came along — a group just as large and self-obsessed and overly dramatic as their parents — we became the forgotten middle children. We weren’t the “me” or the “me, me, me” generation. We were more like the “meh” generation, stuck between two cohorts who never stop talking." And this one. "Being a bridge — not just between government and the people, but between the two large and idealistic generations that bookend us — may ultimately prove to be Gen X’s destiny. Boomers and millennials are both good at making everything very black-and-white... Gen Xers? We’re much more comfortable living in the gray."
  • Senior groups are struggling to attract Boomers, who balk at the idea of joining anything whose name suggests they’re getting old. Many centers are being rebranded as “community life centers,” with “enhanced” fitness classes and wine tastings offered alongside volunteer opportunities to visit older seniors who live at home. (The Boston Globe)
    • NH: Every senior organization you can name is getting rid of age-related labels--and that includes "senior," "retired," "elderly," "aged," what have you. (AARP, like IBM, is now a pure acronym and no longer has anything to do with "retired persons.") Yes, part of this has to do with the Boomer desire to see themselves as "forever young," in the words of the Dylan song. (See: "Boomers Prefer ‘Granddude’ Over ‘Grandpa.’") But it's also related to the unwillingness of Boomers to regard their own elders (Silent or G.I. Generations) as having anything interesting or important to teach them. That's why, as this article explains, Boomers resist moving into communities created mainly by these elders. Many Boomers feel that if they didn't invent it, it isn't authentic. And while they feel they have much wisdom to import to those who follow them, they have never had much to learn from those who came before them.
  • The risk of obesity-related cancers is significantly higher—in some cases, double—among Millennials than it was among Boomers when they were the same age. While the absolute risk of these cancers among young people is still small, doctors are worried that this trend could offset the progress achieved in reducing cancer mortality over the past few decades. (The Lancet Public Health)
    • NH: Lifestyle behaviors, over a lifetime, have a calculable impact on health outcomes. Generational changes in these behaviors, by birth cohort, can therefore help explain changes in U.S. mortality rates and disease incidence. One very positive generational change has been a steady decline in tobacco use at every age starting with Americans born around 1940, which has steadily reduced mortality from lung cancer (and other diseases) in recent decades. But there have been other, negative generational changes--in particular, the rising trend in obesity, which has been gradually accelerating by birth year at every age since first-wave Boomers. (See: "Boomer Malaise.")
    • Over time, obesity raises mortality rates. It does so mainly due to its causal link to diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Yet obesity also shortens lifespans through its known association with about a dozen types of cancer. Some of these, like colon, uterine, and pancreatic cancer, are major killers. These researchers show that, since 1995, the incidence of nearly all of these types of cancer has been rising faster or falling slower for Americans under age 50 than for those over age 50. Colon cancer is a notable example. Since 1995, the incidence has been falling rapidly among older Americans but rising (by about 2% per year) among younger age brackets.

Millennials in Love with Green New Deal. NewsWire - Feb 24 chart3

  • The going rate for a 30-second ad spot on Super Bowl Sunday was $5.3 million this year, a record high. Even amid a movement toward personalized, high-tech advertising, an impersonal campaign run on linear TV remains the industry’s cash cow; even Internet titans like Amazon decided they couldn’t afford to miss out on the big game. (Marketing Week)
    • NH: The rapid growth of digital advertising (which now generates more revenue than TV ads) has been widely attributed to the inherent superiority of "targeted ads" or "broadcast ads." Sounds reasonable: Isn't it much more efficient to put an ad only before those individuals you figure are interested?
    • Yet some advertisers and sociologists are beginning to have doubts. One thing a broadcast ad or a billboard can accomplish, but a digital ad cannot, is assure the viewer that everyone else is watching the same thing and that he or she is therefore participating in a public event. This may not succeed in triggering immediate clicks-to-sale, but it does raise awareness, feed the top of the funnel, and enhance the brand's legitimacy. Consumption is not a strictly private act. It is also a social act by which we signal to others what we value in a common language that we all publicly share. Big brands ignore reinforcing that common language at their peril.
    • That's why even Amazon was bidding for Super Bowl ads and doing its part to push the price for 30 seconds (now $5.3 million) up by nearly 100% over the last decade. Big brand broadcast advertising is not dead. And as the price of micro-targeted ads keeps declining due to their very proliferation, the price of the broadcast ad will rise by comparison. The supply of personal time fragments is infinite. But consider the supply of public time--30 seconds, say, when you know the whole nation or your whole community is watching. That kind of time will always be limited and therefore will remain valuable.
  • For the first time ever, Millennials account for the largest share of all new mortgage loan volume (in dollar terms). This milestone is good news for the housing industry, which must depend on rising demand from Millennials to overcome its long-term demographic headwinds. (Realtor.com)
  • A new piece recounts the ways in which colleges and universities are beefing up their mental health offerings. Millennials are setting foot on campus with enormous pressure to succeed and record levels of student debt—and institutions are spending heavily to ensure that these stressed-out students have the counseling support they need. (The New York Times)
    • NH: Many Xers recall, in college, doing everything they could to stay away from the counselors. The Xer attitude was, first, I don't trust these people and, second, I don't like thinking that I'm not tough enough to handle it myself. That sort of don't-tread-on-me attitude has clearly disappeared among today's late-wave Millennial collegians. By all reports, their demand for reassurance from trusted and credentialed "adults" is insatiable. And their reported needs are off the charts. According to the 2018 ACHA report, more than 60% of college students have experienced “overwhelming anxiety” in the past year and more than 40% say they felt so depressed they had difficulty functioning. (See: “Treating America’s Mental Health Epidemic.”) You no longer need to go to a counselor's office; they will meet you in the dorm or at Starbucks.
    • By gender, most of the rise is coming from coeds. Most Millennial undergrads (57% nationally) are women. Women are more likely to use counseling services than men. And, according to the ACHA, women register higher than men on nearly every measure of emotional stress: anxiety, depression, sadness, loneliness, and even cutting, thinking of suicide, and attempted suicide. In this age bracket as whole, the suicide rate for males remains much higher than for females. But over the last decade, females have been catching up.

Millennials in Love with Green New Deal. NewsWire - Feb 24 chart4

Millennials in Love with Green New Deal. NewsWire - Feb 24 chart5

                                      DID YOU KNOW?

                                      Boredom: Friend or Foe? Boredom is the scourge of modern parents, who often jam-pack their kids’ schedules to ensure that they’re spending every minute of the day productively. But is this a healthy strategy? That’s the question posed by op-ed writer Pamela Paul, who argues that parents should let their children be bored. Paul draws upon her own experiences working boring jobs, which she believes fostered creativity by forcing her mind to wander. Albert Einstein famously developed some of his most important ideas while performing his rote duties as a patent clerk. What’s more, Paul writes, “Life isn’t meant to be an endless parade of amusements,” and children who are shielded from that reality by their parents may have a hard time adjusting to the banality of school and work later on. Nevertheless, overcoming the urge to optimize won’t be easy. A recent study found that parents overwhelmingly believe that children who express boredom should be enrolled in extracurricular activities—an opinion that holds true regardless of gender, race, or socioeconomic status.