The government released its G-19 data a short while ago (G19 = non-mortgage consumer credit for the uninitiated, i.e. credit card, auto and student loan debt). After last month's major slowdown in credit contraction in the revolving portion, we were eager to see whether it was the start of a trend or just an aberration. This month suggests it was an aberration. Revolving credit shrank $9 billion at an annualized rate of 13.1% in February as compared with positive growth (upwardly revised) of 2.1% for January. Currently, the peak to trough decline in revolving consumer credit stands at 12.0%, or $117 billion.
On the margin, this is a negative. The companies principally affected include Capital One (COF), Discover (DFS), American Express (AXP), Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan (JPM) and Citigroup (C).
Joshua Steiner, CFA