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Takeaway: "The steeper the declines and bounces, the more opportunities to make money," writes Keith McCullough this morning.

Editor's Note: Below is a chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

CHART OF THE DAY: Reality Check --> Earnings - zal

Here’s your crinkly real-time Q4 of 2018 US Earnings Season (PROFIT Cycle) update: 

  1. 247 of the SP500’s companies have reported aggregate year-over-year EPS growth of +14.5%
  2. That’s a big ROC slow-down from #PeakCycle aggregate year-over-year EPS growth of +24.5%
  3. The +14.5% ROC is being juiced by Energy seeing aggregate year-over-year EPS growth of +84.0% 

“So”… what happens come Q2 and Q3 of 2019 when Energy companies (and really any cyclical/industrial company that saw #PeakCycle INFLATION in their reported headline revenues) have to compare (or cycle against) peak pricing power? 

CHART OF THE DAY: Reality Check --> Earnings - SPX 4Q18 Surprise