NEWSWIRE: 2/4/19

  • A mounting body of research on the dangers of sleep deprivation has caused scientists to declare lack of sleep a public health crisis. Between our workaholic culture and the ubiquity of screens in everyday life, Americans not only get too little sleep—but have even gotten used to wearing sleep deprivation as a badge of honor. (The Washington Post)
    • NH: Sixty years ago, Americans averaged 7.9 hours of sleep per night. Today, they average just 6.8 hours and 40% report "usually" getting 6 hours or less. (See: “Losing (and Finding) Sleep.”) Busy executives routinely brag about how little sleep they need--as if sleep were a needless indulgence. Even before we knew much about the physiology of sleep, evolutionary biologists suspected that ample sleep must serve some function--otherwise primates would have dialed it way back eons ago in order to do something more useful like pursue prey or find a mate. Today, we do know something about this physiology. (A great guide here is the recent NYT bestseller Why We Sleep by Matthew Walker, director of UCB's Center for Human Sleep Science.) And what we know tells us that sleep is vital for nearly every aspect of human functioning.
    • Day to day, sleep enables learning. Only during deep sleep is knowledge moved from short-term to long-term memory. Experiments show that the ability to acquire new skills varies directly with the adequacy of sleep both before and after the learning experience (hence, the futility of pulling "all-nighters" before exams). REM sleep allows us to safely replay and make sense of difficult experiences. Lack of sleep also measurably impairs decision making, emotional stability, and motor skills. Driving performance, after 18 hours without sleep, is equivalent to having a blood-alcohol content of 0.05%. After 24 hours without sleep, it's equivalent to 0.1% (above the legal limit in every state).
    • Over many years, lack of sleep lowers resistance to sickness and is independently associated with a higher incidence of heart disease and cancer. Chronic lack of sleep has now also been linked to a greater likelihood of Alzheimer's. Walker claims that very few people are genetically gifted with the ability to get by harmlessly on little sleep. He provocatively points to the frequency with which celebrities who brag about how little they sleep (he includes here Ronald Reagan and Maggie Thatcher) end up with dementia. Sure, most people are vaguely aware that "quality sleep" is important. But the research shows it's not just quality. The irreducible bottom line is quantity.
  • The average annual cost of homelessness among the 65+ in New York City is expected to triple by 2030, rising to $461 million. That’s according to a new report from the University of Pennsylvania, which (rightly) identifies homelessness among late-wave Boomers as a birth-cohort phenomenon and also predicts ballooning costs in Boston and Los Angeles. (Actionable Intelligence for Social Policy)
    • NH: We first wrote about the generational drivers behind homelessness back in 2013. (See: "Did You Know? The Aging of the Homeless.") Indeed, I first observed it decades ago--back in the mid-1980s in California when I noticed that there were a lot of homeless youth in their mid-20s hitchhiking their way up and down I-5 and panhandling on the sidewalks of the coastal cities. And then, in the mid-90s, I noticed that most of them seemed to be in their mid-30s. Ditto for later decades. Several years ago, I came across research by Dennis Culhane of U Penn et al. demonstrating that I was not imagining things.
    • Today, this large wave of homeless Americans, late-wave Boomers and early-wave Xers born in the late 1950s and early 1960s, are now reaching age 60. (See chart below.) As the current study shows, the growing frailness of these homeless people combined with their rising rates of chronic and acute disease will pose large challenges and impose significant costs on local governments over the coming decade. Like all homeless populations, a large share of them have untreated psychological disorders. But their distinctive "Generation Jones" birth-year concentration suggests other drivers related specifically to their age-location in history.
    • Explanation? The report offers the familiar Easterlin thesis: These cohorts have suffered economically over their lifetimes from the extent to which their large numbers have bid down wages and pushed up underemployment for people their age. There is modest statistical support for this idea. But a bigger driver IMO is how these cohorts were adversely affected by the unstable social and family environment they experienced at an early age, From the late 1960s to the early 1980s, they grew up as kids during an era of peaking rates for divorce, teen births, adoptions, school truancy, child abuse, child runaways, and recreational drug use. That era is now decades ago in our rear-view mirror. But those who bore, early in life, the damage of that era are still with us. Two books shed light on this driver, one by Francis Fukuyama and the other by Myron Magnet.

America's New Public Health Crisis: Lack of Sleep. NewsWire - Feb 3 chart2

  • Most Americans (53%) now say they’d no longer shop at their favorite retailer if it publicly supported a person or cause they strongly disagreed with. In an age of evaporating brand equity, consumer-facing companies can no longer afford to take social positions that could be seen as controversial. (CompareCards.com)
    • NH: Such are the times we live in: We are moving from arguing (culture wars) to taking sides (boycotting, social-media mobbing). But talk is cheap. The reality isn't quite as bad as these percentages imply. While over half of Americans (53%) say they would boycott a retailer over some social issue, a much smaller share (26%) say they are currently engaged in such a boycott. And surprisingly this share doesn't vary much by age: Boomers are nearly as likely to be doing it as Millennials. 
    • Social-issue boycotting poses new challenges for big brands that are already suffering from declining margins due to rising competition from private labels, micro-brands, and direct marketers. (See: “The Ebbing of Brand Equity.”) What should they do? The safe option is to say or stand for nothing controversial. But in today's climate, that option may not be safe either: While taking the wrong side triggers anger, neutrality invites contempt. Many brands (like Nike or Gillette) or even retailers (like Walmart) figure a safer course of action is to take a overtly progressive stand on major issues. (See: “Walmart Takes a Stand on Social Issues.") The assumption is that the old, while they may disagree, are more brand loyal than the young. Clearly, if your typical consumer tilts younger (like Nike) you can give your stand a sharper edge than if it tips older (like Walmart).

America's New Public Health Crisis: Lack of Sleep. NewsWire - Feb 3 chart3

  • Reactions to Gillette’s #MeToo ad were split along generational lines:  Millennial and Gen-X men liked it, but their dads didn’t. This is the flip side of today’s brand environment: As many brands lay low, just as many are deciding that alienating old customers is a risk worth taking to stand out among younger ones. (Bloomberg)
    • NH: During the 1950s or 1960s, razor-blade ads reeked of masculinity: They pictured big grizzled guys taming "tough" beards so they could be presentable to cooing sexy women. And they usually aired in the breaks between heavyweight boxing matches. Boomers who recall these ads from childhood are understandably blindsided by Gillette's new #MeToo ads. Most of them haven't yet been informed of the consensus in blue-zone academia that "toxic masculinity" is pretty much an oxymoron. And most of those who have want nothing to do with it.
    • Millennials, on the other hand, view these ads favorably--or, at least, have no strong feelings about them. Millennial males, taught since childhood by "zero tolerance" parents and educators to obey the rules, be more agreeable, and take fewer risks, just see this as the inevitable tide of history. Are we permanently rewiring manhood? IMO, unlikely. We're just redirecting where male (and female) instincts express themselves. There is irony here. The biggest reason Gillette and other blade makers are experiencing bad news on their top line is that men (and women) have decided that abundant facial hair (or at least stubble) makes a man look sexier. So, paradoxically, the same society that wants nontoxic, non-Trump males also wants guys to look like they're as loaded with testosterone as Attila the Hun. (See: "You're Not the Man Your Father Was.")
  • A record share of Americans (16%) want to move to another country permanently, which rises to 40% among women under 30. Call it the “Trump effect”: During the Obama or Bush years, feelings toward the president were not a push factor in people’s desire to migrate, but now they appear to be the main motivator. (Gallup)
    • NH: Most of this is rhetorical, of course. Few Americans have any real intention of leaving. But it is worth noting that, over the last three presidencies, subgroups tipping more toward the blue zone (young, poor, and women) are much more likely to say they want to leave than their red-zone opponents. Even during the Obama presidency, the young and the poor were more likely to say they would like to leave--and men were evenly split with women. One explanation is that the old and the wealthy are less willing to move because have a bigger stake in America. Another is that the blue-zone demos see America as less "exceptional" and thus suppose there are plenty of better alternatives (like Canada). Curiously, those who say they want to leave must also largely overlap with those who oppose a wall to keep others from entering. The old 1970s-era bumper sticker, "America: Love it or Leave it," is beginning to take on a new relevance.
  • Exasperated office workers are trying a new tactic to get their ill co-workers to stay home: “sick shaming.” Flu season has turned into a nightmare for employees crammed into close-quarters open offices, who will go to great lengths (from confronting coughing co-workers to writing anonymous notes) to avoid getting sick themselves. (The Wall Street Journal)
    • NH: Here's an interesting predicament. For the last several years--in part due to Millennial "work shaming"--a rising share of all paid days off have been going unused. (See: "Give Me a Break.") Now the problem is getting so severe that employees are continuing to come to work even when they're acutely ill with a cold or the flu. So now we see the growth of "sick shaming," which is when coworkers actively urge a sick employee to stay home. Handing out more sick days won’t solve the problem, because people are afraid to use them: Many young workers feel the unstated expectation is that you should work unless you're seriously ill. According to some HR experts, "presenteeism" is growing more costly to businesses than "absenteeism."
  • Faced with withering raisin sales, Sun-Maid is out to woo Millennial parents with its first ad campaign in a decade. Wisely, the campaign appeals to childhood nostalgia instead of trying to make raisins seem trendy—though technically, raisins would fit right in alongside gluten-free snacks and green smoothies. (Fast Company)
    • NH: The big problem with raisins is that, gram for gram, they are an incredibly concentrated source of fructose. Even more than sucrose (table sugar), fructose has been deemed unhealthy for its link to insulin resistance, diabetes, obesity, heart disease, and aging. Public awareness of this link is already driving down sales of soda pop and fruit juices. Even other dried fruits with lower fructose concentrations are under attack. This is a tough marketing challenge, especially for young parents who worry about what their kids eat.
  • Gen-X comedian Daryn Jones lays out his case for which generation is worse: Millennials or Boomers. It’s the haves versus the have-nots, and Jones’s allegiance is clear: “Millennials, they just want their piece of the pie. Meanwhile, Gen X never got their piece of the pie. And Boomers, you’re eating all the pie.” (CBC Comedy)
    • NH: If you want to feel old, fast-forward to the contest show (10:35) featuring Azzy, a 27-year-old Millennial woman whose YouTube channel has 3 million followers. And she has no idea who Ronald Reagan is or was.
  • New research from Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) shows that Americans increasingly are aging alone. Lee correctly notes that Boomers, who are entering old age in worse health and with fewer social ties than previous generations of seniors, constitute an “invisible tsunami” that could overwhelm our social safety net system. (Social Capital Project)
  • With younger generations drinking less, booze makers and servers are trying to win them back with low- or no-alcohol drinks. But so far, they’ve seen the best results from their pricier, fancier drinks—or in other words, products suited to the mindset that views drinking as a luxury instead of a regular event. (Advertising Age)
    • NH: Yes, Millennials are indeed killing alcohol. This is a trend that we cover frequently, both here in America and in Europe. (See: “Where the Wild Things Aren’t” and “Did You Know? Big Booze Binges on Wellness.”) It does pose a challenge to the beer and liquor industry in general and to drinking establishments in particular. Wine remains an interesting exception. According to a YouGov poll, an estimated 3.1 million people in the U.K. intended to abstain during "Dry January." The biggest rate of abstainers (7%) was for Generation X (age 35 to 55), largely because so many Millennial Brits have already given up drinking. (See: "U.K. Millennials Go Dry.")

                                  DID YOU KNOW?

                                  The Big Business of Tidying Up. After decades of rampant consumerism, Americans have more “stuff” than ever. Now, writes Bloomberg Businessweek, getting rid of unwanted possessions has turned into a cultural obsession. The face of this new movement toward minimalism is Marie Kondo, an entrepreneur and bestselling author who recently launched a new Netflix show devoted to teaching viewers how to declutter their lives. Her advice covers not just overflowing closets and packed garages, but also out-of-control inboxes and jam-packed hard drives. Why has Kondo become an icon at this moment in history? It may have to do with the current generational gradient. Boomers were the pioneers of conspicuous consumption—and many are now downsizing and finding that their Millennial kids have no need for boxes of old stuff. (See: “Did You Know? Keep Your Hand-Me-Downs.”) Meanwhile, Millennials, who prefer simplicity to the clutter of modern life (see: “When Less is More”), are similarly drawn to Kondo’s brand of minimalism.