It's not too early to ask: Would a U.S. economic slowdown mean political hay for Democratic candidates in 2020?
As Hedgeye Demography analyst Neil Howe explains in the clip above, he sees the Republicans playing defense, and Democrats on offense for the marathon campaign heading towards November 2020.
And any sort of economic slowdown would only sharpen those positions.
“The problem for the Republicans is they just got beaten pretty badly in an election…and it’s hard to imagine the economy doing any better than it’s doing now as far as employment and industrial capacity,” Howe explains.
“If the yield curve inverts in the spring, that would be the maximally worst time for the Republican Party just given the expected average amount of time duration between the yield curve inverting and going into a recession. That would happen early in 2020.”
Watch the entire clip for Neil’s full outlook.