We have downgraded our estimate for March gaming revenues in Macau. We now believe the number will be in the range from HK$13.5 billion (+46%) to HK$14 billion (+51%) down from our prior estimate of HK$14.0-14.5. Analysts are all over the place so its difficult to gauge consensus. The most recent estimate we saw put March revenues at MOP13.2bn. Based on our sources that seems like a good estimate, but for TABLE revenues in HONG KONG dollars. Earlier estimates had growth at 60-80%.
Here is the math:
We are pretty sure the first 28 days of March did HK$12BN in table revenue. That means that the pace for the first 15 days was HK$467MM per day and the following 13 days were at HK$385MM. The last 3 days were weekdays so if assuming a HK$325-350MM pace that mean tables should shake out around HK$13-13.1BN. Slots should be in the HK$650MM to HK$700MM.
If the pace we saw in the latter half of March continues into April – that implies roughly HK$11.5BN or 41.5% y-o-y growth
