WE PROJECT MARCH MACAU AT HK$13.5BN TO HK$14BN

We have downgraded our estimate for March gaming revenues in Macau.  We now believe the number will be in the range from HK$13.5 billion (+46%) to HK$14 billion (+51%) down from our prior estimate of HK$14.0-14.5.  Analysts are all over the place so its difficult to gauge consensus.  The most recent estimate we saw put March revenues at MOP13.2bn.  Based on our sources that seems like a good estimate, but for TABLE revenues in HONG KONG dollars.  Earlier estimates had growth at 60-80%.

 

Here is the math:

 

We are pretty sure the first 28 days of March did HK$12BN in table revenue.  That means that the pace for the first 15 days was HK$467MM per day and the following 13 days were at HK$385MM.  The last 3 days were weekdays so if assuming a HK$325-350MM pace that mean tables should shake out around HK$13-13.1BN.  Slots should be in the HK$650MM to HK$700MM.

 

If the pace we saw in the latter half of March continues into April – that implies roughly HK$11.5BN or 41.5% y-o-y growth