• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Here


    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

We have downgraded our estimate for March gaming revenues in Macau.  We now believe the number will be in the range from HK$13.5 billion (+46%) to HK$14 billion (+51%) down from our prior estimate of HK$14.0-14.5.  Analysts are all over the place so its difficult to gauge consensus.  The most recent estimate we saw put March revenues at MOP13.2bn.  Based on our sources that seems like a good estimate, but for TABLE revenues in HONG KONG dollars.  Earlier estimates had growth at 60-80%.

Here is the math:

We are pretty sure the first 28 days of March did HK$12BN in table revenue.  That means that the pace for the first 15 days was HK$467MM per day and the following 13 days were at HK$385MM.  The last 3 days were weekdays so if assuming a HK$325-350MM pace that mean tables should shake out around HK$13-13.1BN.  Slots should be in the HK$650MM to HK$700MM.

If the pace we saw in the latter half of March continues into April – that implies roughly HK$11.5BN or 41.5% y-o-y growth