CHART OF THE DAY: Peak Arrogance Leads to Trough Returns

01/04/19 08:00AM EST

Editor's Note: Below is a chart (and excerpt) from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

CHART OF THE DAY: Peak Arrogance Leads to Trough Returns - zka

Today is what we call Macro Themes Day @Hedgeye. Once per quarter, we present both our process and the Top 3 Things in Macro that are becoming more probable in our models that Wall Street consensus often still considers improbable.

Our Top 3 Macro Themes last quarter were:

  1. Quad 4 in Q4
  2. Cyclical Peaks
  3. Long Housing

The Top Thing that was common in all 3 of those things, was that we thought interest rates would A) stop going up and B) start going down, whereas Old Wall consensus thought rates would continue to “breakout” to the upside.

Mr. Master of the Hedge Fund Universe  #MHFU guy was short Treasuries in Q4 too.

Clever, creative, or correct. People that don’t like me because they don’t like my position (vs. theirs) can call it whatever they want to call it. Back in the day in hockey arenas, I was called much worse!

I don’t know about you, but I don’t think I’m smarter than the market. When I was a hedge fund PM on the buy-side, I paid a lot of money for people with good data-driven processes to explain where I could be wrong.

Some people don’t do that at all. Especially with some of the struggling “Macro” PMs out there, you’ll see they have one thing in common: they start with what the data and markets should be doing vs. what both are actually doing.

CHART OF THE DAY: Peak Arrogance Leads to Trough Returns - Chart of the Day

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