Editor's Note: Below is a chart (and excerpt) from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
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On those Inflation Expectations falling, here’s your latest data dump from @Hedgeye Jedi Darius Dale: Domestic Inflation Resumes Its Downtrend In November: Headline CPI decelerated -30bps to 2.2% YoY in NOV, driven down by a -566bps deceleration in Energy CPI (to 3.18% YoY), a -268bps deceleration in Wireless CPI (to -3.3% YoY), as well as a -46bps deceleration in Transportation Services CPI (to 3.35% YoY). It’s nice to see that our inflation nowcasting tools continue to be more accurate than consensus fears of accelerating wage growth spilling over into reported inflation over the short-to-intermediate term – a faulty assumption we’ve long since debunked. Core CPI ticked up marginally to 2.2% YoY – a reminder that, as we currently stand, the Fed does not have nearly as much air cover in the form of reported economic data to support a materially dovish pivot at next week’s FOMC meeting. Core PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation metric – is probably the only data point they could hang their hat on currently after it ticked down to an 8-month low of 1.78% YoY in OCT. |
