Bush 41 and the Legacy of the G.I. Generation. NewsWire

NEWSWIRE: 12/10/18

• In a tribute to George H.W. Bush, historian David Kaiser reflects on how he embodied the values of the G.I. Generation in office and throughout his life. He writes that Bush, the last president to have served in World War II, “reflected [the G.I. Generation’s] capacity to work as a team, accept reality as they found it, and above all, to understand the other person’s point of view.” (Time)
• NH: "Saying goodbye to the Greatest Generation" was how the media described all the ceremonies and fanfare. George Bush, Sr., reminds us all of the passing of the G.I Generation (born 1901-24), a cohort group whose Promethean political and material accomplishments--defeating global fascism, defeating global communism, creating a cornucopia of middle-class postwar prosperity, making their century the "American century" (oh, and did I mention putting a man on the moon?)--leave younger generations feeling like they're still living in the G.I.s' civic shadow. David Kaiser, a good friend of mine, ably puts the G.I.s' collective life story into historical context.
• Their dominance of national politics exceeds that of any other American generation (with the possible exception of the "Republican Generation" of Hamilton, Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe). The G.I.s' first run as a major-party candidate for president (Thomas Dewey, born in 1902) was in 1944. Their last run (Bob Dole, born in 1923) was in 1996. That's a 52-year span. They occupied the White House, without interruption, from 1961 to 1993. That's a 32-year span. Their dominance was so complete, in fact, that they squeezed the Silent Generation (born 1925-42) out of any presidents at all, the first time any generation has been excluded entirely from the White House.
• Speaking of the Silent Generation, a historical footnote is in order. While Bush 41 was the last living president who was a World War II combat veteran, he was not the last living president belonging to the G.I. Generation. That honor goes to President Jimmy Carter, still alive at age 96. Born in October 1924, Carter was not a plebe at Annapolis until the fall of 1943, which meant he was still a student there when the war ended.
• Spared from combat, Carter's life thereafter had more of a "Silent Generation" storyline: Marrying young, excelling early as a whiz-kid engineer, gaining a lifelong reputation as a micromanager, and later undergoing an awkward midlife passage. Carter's famous "malaise" speech and his desire to expiate guilt for America's crimes are definitely not the sort of thing we heard from Kennedy or LBJ or Nixon or Reagan. The core G.I. credo was guiltless optimism about America's boundless future (or to use Bush 41's famous pilot lingo: "CAVU," for Ceiling and Visibility Unlimited). So yes, by birth Jimmy Carter belongs to the G.I. Generation. But he may be eligible for honorary membership in the Silent Generation--probably the only president (with an asterisk) the Silent will ever get.
• The new hot workplace commodity is here: the “privacy pod.” A response to the open office trend, these pods (often little larger than a phone booth) are being fought over by workers who need to get work done without distractions or have a conversation without the entire office overhearing. (The Wall Street Journal)
• NH: Why have corporate workplaces been transforming so rapidly from offices and cubicles to bullpens and "open spaces"? One big reason is generational: Millennials really do like collaborative environments that encourage workers to socialize and cooperate. Boomers, who originally pushed for private cubicles back in the 1970s, don't much like the shift--but their presence is receding. The other big reason is cost: Open offices can cram a lot more people into a lot fewer square feet. And if you can also fool your employees into believing (by means of a few "fun" accessories) that this social experience is also a happy playhouse experience, you may also get the best and brightest of this generation to put in 14-hour days. That, at any rate, is the win-win-win aspiration of employers in Silicon Valley or Seattle or Boston. (See: "Open Offices Generate Buzz.")
• Even Millennials, though, find that too much of a good thing can become a nightmare. Visit a progressive corporate HQ (like Bloomberg's in New York City) and you will find that absolutely nothing is so scarce as privacy. Lines form outside every glass-enclosed office nook. Solutions? Millennials already excel at plugging in earphones to drown out neighbors. They have developed well-honed politeness codes for not bothering coworkers. Some are donning comical-looking "blinkers" (see below) that shield their eyes from distraction. Others are persuading their employers to invest in halfway measures, like pink-noise systems, noise-blocking screens, high-backed chairs, and alcove sofas. And some employers are giving in entirely. They are bringing back sound-proof cubicles in the form of portable ad-hoc "privacy pods."

• Nearly one-quarter of Gen Xers (23%) believe it’s nearly impossible to get out of significant debt. This pessimism is explained both by Xers’ phase of life (they now occupy the age bracket at which debt levels traditionally are highest) and by the lasting effect of a recession that left this generation hopelessly indebted. (LightStream)
• The new Disney feature Ralph Breaks the Internet marks the company’s latest departure from its patriarchal past. While early Disney princesses were judged largely on their appearance and rendered mostly incapable without the help of a man, today’s princesses are diverse, strong-willed characters with demonstrable skills—a nod to inclusive Millennials who are now introducing their own kids to the Disney brand. (The Wall Street Journal)
• NH: Disney isn't taking any major risk in Ralph. The Disney princesses enter the movie in bit or cameo roles and their main function is to provide comic relief. (No doubt the humor here is more for the parents than the kids.) The movie itself is mostly an Internet adventure (like "Emoji"). It has done OK, not great, thus far at the box office.
• Whither the Disney "princess" brand, though, is an interesting question. If you believe that gender roles are historically open-ended, you might look at Frozen and Brave in the context of go-girl empowerment and conclude that the whole game is changing--and that Disney better change rapidly with it. On the other hand, if you believe that gender roles are becoming less flexible over time, you might look at the incorrigible attachment girls still have to princess gowns and tiaras and conclude that nothing is really changing. The reality is hard to discern. Not long after the best-selling and progressive-themed Frozen appeared, Disney released the even-better selling Beauty and the Beast live-action remake--which features a young girl who falls in love with a sulking young prince who brutally holds her captive. Wow. Are we progressing... or regressing?
• Contributor Thor Hogan writes that to win in 2020, the Democrats need one thing above all else: a young nominee. As Hogan points out, the Democratic Party does best when it runs on generational change: In the last century, the party has never ascended to the nation’s highest office with a non-incumbent older than age 52. (The Washington Post)
• NH: Hogan points to a real problem in the Democrats' overall party leadership, especially in the emerging bimodal age distribution of Democrats in the House of Representatives. Nancy Pelosi and her fellow top leaders are nearly all over age 70, while most of the incoming freshmen are under 45. Democrats suffer from a dearth of late-wave Boomers and Gen Xers in office. (See: "The 2018 Midterms: A Tale of Two Americas.") See graphic below, showing how much more spread out the age distribution is for the House Democrats compared with the House Republicans.
• But I'm not so sure this age problem translates across to individual national leaders. Historically, young voters have often been drawn to elder leaders whom they believe in. Most Millennials were (and probably still are) passionate about Bernie Sanders (at age 76). Most young Boomers ultimately came around to vote for Ronald Reagan (at age 74). Young G.I.s idolized Secretary of War Henry Stimson (at age 74).
• Even so, it's probably fair to say that 2020 would be a great year for a totally new--and younger--figure to emerge on the Democratic side. Of those Hogan mentions, the most promising to me are all late-wave Gen Xers: Tulsi Gabbard (Rep, D-HI); Joe Kennedy III (Rep, D-MA), Seth Moulton (Rep, D-MA), and Chris Murphy (Sen, D-CT).

• In a wide-ranging interview, Elon Musk shared his obsession with the dark side of technological progress. Musk is grimly confident that AI will sooner or later be put to its ghastliest uses—such as the creation of a “swarm of assassin drones”—a threat that he believes will only be abated if humanity merges with machines. (MarketWatch)
• NH: True Gen Xer that he is, Elon Musk wants to travel to other worlds not because he's optimistic about the future of humankind. To the contrary, he feels we'd better colonize other planets soon before humanity wipes itself out through some technological catastrophe. Will the first trips to Mars be risky? Sure, says this derring-do entrepreneur: I'm willing to do it myself, even though I know I need to be "prepared to die." (Though perhaps going to Mars is hardly riskier than managing Tesla, which he now admits was itself "weeks from dying" earlier this year.) Musk has long made clear that in the celebrated debate between techno-optimists (like Ray Kurzweil) and techno-pessimists (like Bill Joy), he belongs to the pessimists' camp. Musk's recent description of an "assassin drone" threat sounds like it was taken almost directly from a Black Mirror episode: Season Three (2016), "Hated in the Nation." In the episode, nearly 400,000 Britons are slaughtered by metallic killer bees. Very scary stuff indeed.
• According to a new survey, the top five pop culture references Boomers recognize and Millennials don’t are Marcus Welby, M.D., The Danny Thomas Show, Tony Orlando, Art Linkletter, and Engelbert Humperdinck. The cultural generation gap may be smaller than ever, but parents can rest assured there are still plenty of references they can make that will fly right over their kids’ heads. (YouGov)
• NH: Millennials win this one. Millennials are actually well versed in the most celebrated Boomer-era performers. Go ahead and ask them about the Stones, Beatles, Bee-Gees, James Taylor, CSNY, Pink Floyd, or Led. They'll surprise you. Where they fail is in pre-Boomer stuff that Boomers just happen to know about (like Danny Thomas and Art Linkletter) or know-by-dint-of-repetition stuff that even Boomers themselves don't want to hear anymore. (Tony Orlando? Are you kidding?) Young Boomers were much less knowledgeable about their parents' music--and today Boomers are much less interested in their kids' music.
• Most Americans say that it would be “unacceptable” to allow algorithms to make decisions that would have real-world consequences for humans, such as video analysis of job interviews and the generation of personal finance scores. This societal resistance to AI decision-making is perhaps the biggest headwind for innovations like autonomous vehicles. (Pew Research Center)
• Interest has spiked in “Friendsgiving,” a friends-only iteration of the holiday created by Millennials, for Millennials. This generation’s fingerprints are all over Friendsgiving dinner, a potluck-style affair featuring unique dishes, Google spreadsheets, and no kids. (The Atlantic)
• NH: Millennials (with some Xer help) invented Friendsgiving because they like formalizing friendship ties--and because, as the age of marriage and parenthood keeps receding, the celebration of their own "family" Thanksgiving remains out of reach. We stand by our original analysis. (See: "Millennials Celebrate 'Friendsgiving.'")

• The reason Millennials spend less than previous generations is simple: They're better off. A new study found that, compared to G.I.s, Silent, Boomers, and Xers at the same ages, Millennials have “lower earnings, fewer assets, and less wealth”; we could have told you this years ago, and did. (Federal Reserve)
• NH: We have already said this--and more--about the Millennial Generation. See my Fed paper with Diana Elliott ("A Generational Perspective on Living Standards"). I am reminded of Ernest Hemingway's famous rejoinder to F. Scott Fitzgerald, who once said, "The rich are different from you and me." Hemingway's response: "Yes, they have more money." Another great Fitzgerald-era slogan, "living well is the best revenge," may also be appropriate here. Will the Millennials ever get to enjoy their own revenge?

DID YOU KNOW?

Dying Shopping Malls Get a Second Life. As we’ve written before (see: “Is the Shopping Mall Fated for Extinction?”), one major consequence of the brick-and-mortar retail slowdown is the slow demise of the American shopping mall. What will become of all that vacant floor space? In some states, property developers have transformed empty malls into entrepreneurial hubs. Startup incubator 1776 is housed within 11,000 square feet of the Cherry Hill Mall, where entrepreneurs and online retailers enjoy all the perks of having a physical outpost (easy direct-to-consumer testing, networking with nearby established businesses). Some city planners are thinking even further outside the box, killing two birds with one stone by repurposing empty lots into mixed-use residential areas. The new concept designs, which feature everything from housing units to concert venues to boutique shops, are a novel way to expand the housing stock in jam-packed metros like Orange County. Research and development studio KTGY takes a more philanthropic approach, designing plans that would transform an empty mall into housing space for the homeless. (Good luck with that idea at the public hearings!)