Takeaway: The press conference that wasn't. The prospect of no deal is like the Sword of Damocles as producers realize oil prices crash without one.

VIENNA - The press conference that wasn't. OPEC took the unusual step of cancelling its press conference Thursday and rolling over production cut discussions into Friday when it joins non-OPEC ministers.  The market, which was already jittery, signaled its disapproval and sent prices lower. But maybe this was the plan.

The Saudis want a deal but are trying not to look too eager so they don't end up doing all the cutting. We are sure there were some recriminations for the Saudis during today's session from other members who blame their big production hike for Trump as responsible for lower prices.

We read Minister al-Falih's comments tonight as some tough love for some recalcitrant fellow OPEC members to show them how prices react to the canceled press conference. The prospect of no deal is like the Sword of Damocles as producers realize that oil prices crash without a cut agreement.

We are hearing that the issue of exemptions and continued negotiations on individual cut amounts for some members remain sticking points

Russia cuts are another issue Minister al-Falih cited in response to press questions shouted at him leaving OPEC headquarters tonight.  But as we reported in our OPEC Notes today, we believe Russia's cut commitment was resolved overnight, and the reason the pre-meeting press scrum was rescheduled.  It's possible something changed during the day or the Saudis are trying to get the Russians on the hook for a larger cut. But we think it is more likely about messaging to OPEC members that Russia will not cut if we can't get our own house in order.  

We still believe the odds of no deal are very low. Seeing red in oil prices today will serve as powerful motivation that OPEC members need to get a cut agreement.