Now that Ben Bernanke's Fed has explicitly changed their rhetoric to a hawkish one, we need to see a rate hike. The US Dollar is starting to pick its head out of the mud again, and will be wack-a-moled if Bernanke doesn't deliver on this expectation.
As the US$ has strengthened in the last few weeks, commodities have sold off, and global stock markets have risen. My quantitative models have 72.67 as the critical line that needs to hold. Currently the US$ Index is trading up again today at 73.44. This is the driving factor behind an inflation sensitive stock market.
There is still a lot of hay to bail here. But the momentum "Trade" is finally at the US Dollar's back, rather than in its face.
KM
(chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)
As the US$ has strengthened in the last few weeks, commodities have sold off, and global stock markets have risen. My quantitative models have 72.67 as the critical line that needs to hold. Currently the US$ Index is trading up again today at 73.44. This is the driving factor behind an inflation sensitive stock market.
There is still a lot of hay to bail here. But the momentum "Trade" is finally at the US Dollar's back, rather than in its face.
KM
(chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)
(chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)