07/29/08 06:15PM EDT
While positive on the long-term outlook for the lodging industry, Laurence Geller, CEO of Strategic Hotels recently predicted a weaker 2009 than 2008. His view is consistent with my 6/22/08 portal posting “IF YOU DO MACRO YOU WON’T DO THESE STOCKS”. Mr. Geller is highly respected and a straight shooter so what are the analysts seeing that is so different? By my calculation, the Street projects a median increase of 5% and almost 10% in revenue and EPS, respectively.
  • Street estimates have come down considerably since my 6/27/08 posting “NOT BEARISH ENOUGH, NOT EVEN BEARISH”. The second chart shows the trend of declining estimates. We applaud the more realistic estimates. However, analysts continue to project positive RevPAR and flattish margins in 2009. Lodgers will be lucky to show flat RevPAR in 2009 which translates into some serious margin compression. So I have to ask again; Are analysts bearish enough?
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