Editor's Note: Below is a chart (and excerpt) from today's Early Look written by Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale..
Clearly investor consensus thinks #Quad4 is priced in already – months before Headline GDP prints a likely 1-handle in late-January amid ongoing monetary tightening. Mind you, this is the same investor consensus that failed to appropriately position for the #Quad4 hurricane to begin with. In fact, as the Chart of the Day below highlights, market participants largely came into Q4 with some version of the worst possible asset mix, which explains why October ’18 was the worst month for hedge fund performance since August ’11.
Obviously, many of you reading this probably felt some or all of that pain, so the point of that statement isn’t at all intended to mock you. It’s to alert you to the fact that your competition is as bullish as they were heading into the aforementioned economic regime shift. If that isn’t at least cause for concern, I don’t know what is.