We have very healthy degree skepticism of Government, Politicians and the market’s current levels….
Market sentiment:
(1) Our daily Hedgeye Risk management models have been to the negative side all week.
(2) Volatility is broken on all three durations - TRADE TREND and TAIL
(3) We have moved higher in the S&P500 this week with both fear and complacency
The economy:
(1) February’s inflation data is misleading - March CPI will see an acceleration from February
(2) The balance sheet of the US is no different than the other P.I.G.S.
(3) Market rumors of LBOs and the like are reminiscing of 2007
Interest Rates:
(1) Are headed higher - exceptionally low is unreasonable
(2) The high yield market is at levels not seen since 2007
(3) Today’s move higher in treasury yields is scaring the horses
Commodities:
(1) Oil prices are at levels not seen since Q408’ (bullish TREND)
(2) Copper prices continue to be in a Bullish Formation (bullish TRADE, TREND, and TAIL)
(3) Gold prices continue to break down in anticipation of higher bond yields (bearish TREND)
The consumer:
(1) Obama’s approval rating is at all time lows (Rasmussen was -21 today!)
(2) Consumer confidence is stuck at very low levels (last week’s University of Michigan survey made a lower-high)
(3) Job creation is anemic
I guess that’s why Keith runs a 27 factor risk management model.!
Have a great weekend,
Howard Penney
Managing Director