This morning's claims data was better. Claims dropped 5k week over week to 457k from 462k (no revision), while the 4-week rolling average declined by 4k to 471k from 475k. The following chart shows the rolling average trend line. Below that we show the raw data.
It is worth noting that next week, barring a significant uptick in the printed number, the rolling average number should fall materially. If next week's claims number is flat week over week the rolling average will fall by 10k - a large enough number to get people's attention, though still not enough to get claims back inside our 3 standard deviation trajectory. As we've said over the last few weeks, we continue to expect to see a claims tailwind throughout the Spring months as census hiring picks up and weather-related effects dissipate.
Joshua Steiner, CFA