Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by CEO Keith McCullough.
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Rather than opine from The Tower on what inflation, tariffs, deficits, etc. “should do” (happy to entertain these types of intellectual discussions over a few glasses of vino, if the aristocracy will spare me some!), we focus uniquely on what the data is actually doing. I don’t just run my mouth on that. We run proprietary predictive tracking algorithms that update in real-time, embracing both real-time market prices, and incoming economic data, like good Bayesian Boys in the back office should do. In today’s Chart of The Day, you can see our most recently refreshed nowcast for headline CPI vs. the establishment’s forecasts: A) We have Q418 inflation #slowing to 2.23% Can the Fed continue to raise rates into a rate of change slow-down in both US growth and inflation? How about into ongoing melt-downs in Global Stock markets? Yes. In fact, most of the time, that’s what the Fed does. It reacts on a lag to lagging economic data. |
