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We held a very interesting in-house conference yesterday in New Haven. Our goal was to take half a day, away from our screens, to think.

One of our latest hires, Diego Scataglini, talked about trust and how American society is losing theirs. Interestingly, almost 4x the amount of people in America believe in ghosts than they currently trust in the US government.

This isn’t a political point. This is a point about politics. AFTER the US stock market has tacked on a +70% rally to the upside, and AFTER the entire global economy has recovered from the said “great depression” of some who missed an annual bonus, this is what you get – the score:

1. AFTER the SP500 ramped +3.1% last week, the ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence reading remaining at minus -49 (vs. -49 in the wk prior).

2. AFTER the SP500 has ripped those Selling Fear in February for a +8.8% move to the upside (Feb 8th to March 12th), this morning’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence report put in a lower-high, decelerating to 72.5 in March versus 73.6 in February (see chart below).

3. AFTER his final countdown healthcare tour, President Obama’s approval rating hit a new low this week (The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday showed that 22% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -21. That matches the lowest Approval Index rating yet recorded for this President).

What gives?

Americans don’t trust the rally, and Americans don’t trust the government. Now that the immediate term (TRADE) bubble in gold has popped, and the intermediate term (TREND) bubble in US Treasuries keeps popping, I guess the only bubble we have left to make a call on is the one that we have held out on our longest duration (the TAIL) – the Bubble In US Politics.

Its sad, but these numbers don’t lie; politicians do.


Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

Who Do Americans Trust? - um